Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated shower chances and breezy conditions stick around for a few more days as a trough lingers in the region.

* Drier and calmer conditions resume next week with seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

through Thursday.

The shortwave that spurred all of the showers and storms today has lifted northeast, allowing drier conditions to settle in. A secondary shortwave is diving south on the backside of the parent trough, keeping the trough overhead today and transforming it into a closed low. Cold air aloft, residual moisture, and some daytime solar heating should allow some isolated instability showers (10-30% chances) to develop today, mainly across the northern half of the CWA. Most of the region stays dry though, with below normal temperatures and just some breezy winds in our northwestern zones. The low slowly drift east tomorrow, leaving 10-30% PoPs across eastern Mohave County. Farther west, dry conditions are expected with gusty north winds of 20-35 mph.

Dry conditions anticipated areawide Sunday - Thursday as the low finally exits and a quasi-zonal pattern sets up. Some breezy conditions are possible in the southern Great Basin early in the week as a shortwave moves through the PacNW, but otherwise winds remain light. Temperatures rebound to seasonable values and hold fairly steady throughout the week.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package

Light winds favoring a NE direction and under 8kt persist through the daytime hours, the become light out of the NW after 03-04z. Expect stronger north-northwesterly winds to arrive around and after 10z with sustained speeds 10-15 kt and gusts around 25 -30 kt at times. Stronger NW winds continue into Saturday, diminishing during the late afternoon and evening. Mostly clear skies last through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light and variable winds favoring northerly directions persist through the day. Expect an increase in N-NW winds overnight at most locations with gusts 20-30 kt likely. Winds increase at KBIH after 01z tonight and after 06-09z for Las Vegas Valley and CRV terminals. Increased N-NW winds last into the first half of the day Saturday, then likely begin diminishing late afternoon and evening. Mostly clear skies last through the TAF period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.