Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Additional rounds of rain and storms expected across most of the area today. * Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

through Wednesday.

Latest satellite and radar imagery shows two distinct precipitation regimes within the forecast area. The most robust convection exists in Lincoln County where meso-analysis shows MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 knots. This environment will keep a marginal threat of severe weather (mainly hail) and flash flooding present through most of the morning hours. The second regime is more associated with vorticity advection and cold air aloft with the low. This activity is much weaker, but persistent moderate rain with a few storms mixed in may cause minor flooding in the most susceptible areas of Death Valley this morning. As the low pushes inland today, showers and storms will spread east. The greatest coverage is expected along and north of I-15 and AZ Strip (PoPs 50-90%), with more isolated activity between I-15 and I-40 (PoPs 20-50%). The lower instability today should limit the severe potential, but cold air aloft and sufficient vertical shear will keep a marginal risk of severe hail in our northeastern areas. By midnight, precipitation is forecast to be largely out of our CWA, allowing dry conditions to prevail overnight. Isolated shower chances (10-25%) return Friday afternoon as the trough lingers overhead, but most locations remain dry.

Ensemble guidance has the trough pinching off into a closed low over the weekend, which means it will be slow to exit the region. On Saturday, models are in good agreement that the low will be centered over northwestern or north-central AZ. This keeps low shower chances (10-25%) over eastern Mohave County, while dry conditions and gusty north winds occur to the west. Dry and calm weather finally returns to the entire forecast area on Sunday and sticks around through Wednesday. During this time, temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly below normal for late October.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package

South-southwest winds with gusts around 18 kts last until 04z then winds reduce and gusts cut off. Temperatures look to stay above 100 degrees until 06z. Winds become lighter into mid Wednesday morning and turn more southeasterly. These winds will increase on the late morning then turn southwesterly again Wednesday afternoon with gusts around 18 kts and ease again that evening. Mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Breezy continue to affect most of the region with gusts peaking around 20 kts that will last into the mid evening to early night before reducing. The exception will be KDAG which will is beginning to see gusts arrive, peaking closer to 25 kts, and not reducing until the late night/early Wednesday. Winds don't look to increase again until the late morning and early afternoon on Wednesday. Mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.