Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy south-southwesterly wind gusts will continue through the week with dry conditions and near-normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Today through Monday.

Tightened pressure gradients across the region will continue to bring gusty south-southwesterly winds to the forecast area in the afternoons thanks to an upper-level trough across the Pacific Northwest and a ridge to our east. Expect gust speeds generally between 25 and 35 mph, though can't rule out 40 mph speeds in isolated instances and/or in the higher terrain. Ensembles continue to show a reinforcing closed low riding along the California Coast before pushing into the southern Great Basin mid- to-late week. The resultant instability coupled with 0.75 to 1.25 inches of PWAT over our eastern zones have resulted in increased PoPs across southeastern Lincoln and northern and eastern Mohave counties Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, WPC has painted a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook over northern Mohave County for Wednesday and Thursday. Coverage is expected to be isolated, but storms that form have the potential to be efficient rain- makers. For locations west of Interstate 15, expect mostly dry conditions and temperatures near-normal heading into the next work week.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package

Light southwest winds tonight give way to breezy south-southeast winds Tuesday morning and afternoon. Some uncertainty exists in the exact wind direction and magnitude during the morning hours (15z-19z). Think on average, winds during this time will be from ~160, but wouldn't be surprised to see periods as far east as 120. By mid- afternoon, expecting a gradual turn to a more true south direction. Gusts 15-25 knots likely (90%), with 30+ knots possible (25%). Winds should subside after sunset and remain from the south-southwest overnight. Mostly clear skies with just a few mid-level afternoon clouds. Temps peak just shy of 100F on Tuesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Breezy south winds linger tonight in areas southeast of I-15, but elsewhere light winds are expected. Southerly to southeasterly winds pick up across most of the region Tuesday morning and persist through sunset. Peak gusts of 15-30 knots are likely (90%). Isolated convection possible (10- 20%) across northwestern Arizona and eastern Lincoln County Tuesday afternoon/evening. Here, few to scattered clouds around 10kft are expected, but mostly clear skies farther west.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.