Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds diminish overnight.

- Unsettled temperatures continue this week.

- Multiple weak precipitation chances this week, with the best chance this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 926 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

No big changes to the forecast Monday evening. The gusty winds from earlier have been slowly diminishing with this pattern likely to continue overnight.

Northerly winds will swing back to the south/southeast Tuesday at speeds peaking around 10 to 20 mph in the late afternoon to evening, wind gusts upwards of 30 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will be at or below normal for this time year, mainly in the 70s. Skies will be clear to mostly clear.

Tuesday night is the next chance for passing light rain but amounts won't be much, at just a few hundredths of an inch for those who receive measurable precip.

Unsettled pattern lingers with continued low-end chances for passing rain and thundershowers.

DISCUSSION

(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Current upper-air analysis and water vapor imagery depict the surface low over northeast MT/northwest ND and a cold front pushing southeast across the Dakotas and into NE. Satellite imagery indicates partly cloudy skies behind the front as it moves out of the region. Surface observations show temperatures mainly in the upper 60s and into 70s, with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. West- northwesterly winds are gusting up to ~40kts across much of northwest SD and the plains to the east of the Black Hills and could reach as high as 50 to 55kts today. A wind advisory is in effect from 14/17z to 15/03z. These conditions will bring extreme fire danger to northwest SD, with any fires that start being capable of a very high to extreme rate of spread. One factor that will help in the suppression of fire potential today is the precipitation that fell this morning over portions of northwest SD, with some areas seeing ~0.5" of rain, though drier portions of the fire weather area outside the rain-affected zone remain most at risk.

Elsewhere, winds will be breezy behind the frontal passage, generally gusting 25 to 35kts, and will slowly diminish overnight, becoming lighter by early morning. Temperatures will stay near seasonal, with highs mainly in the 70s with parts of southwestern and south-central SD reaching the 80s. Precipitation will exit the region over the next few hours, leading to drier conditions for the rest of the day and into Tuesday.

Looking ahead, temperatures will be a roller coaster as the jet stream wiggles back and forth over the region, with highs bouncing between the 70s and 80s in a typical summer-to-fall transition. Breezy conditions will be common most days, and multiple weak precipitation chances will pass through, though meaningful rainfall may be limited. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain a concern across northeast WY and parts of southwest SD through the week given the breezy pattern, continued drought conditions, and limited rainfall. This weekend currently looks like the best shot at meaningful precipitation as an upper-level disturbance moves over the region. However, this is several days out and details may change.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued At 1049 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR condtions are expected throughout the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued At 1225 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

West-northwest winds gusting to 50-55kts across northwest SD today will drive extreme fire danger, with any fires capable of very high to extreme spread rates. Morning rainfall (~0.5) over portions of northwest SD offers some localized suppression, but drier areas outside that zone remain most at risk. Elevated fire weather continues into the week for northeast WY and parts of southwest SD due to breezy winds and continued drought conditions, however, RH values won't be at critical level.

UNR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

SD...None. WY...None.