Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1129 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the work week. Expect heat headlines on multiple days.

- While much of the region has received rainfall over the past few days, more rainfall will be required to reverse recent drought trends, especially across southeast Oklahoma. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds, especially across southeast Oklahoma.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A broad ridge of high pressure aloft resides over the southeast quarter of the nation, while an upper trough slides east across the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front stretched east to west across Nebraska, with a pre-frontal trough over N/NW KS.

South winds overnight will lead to warm morning lows on Tuesday. By afternoon, the cold front will settle down into central/southwest KS and will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. The CAMs suggest that outflow from these storms will drop down into far NE OK by evening, and could focus isolated showers and storms. The model blend (NBM) has this potential handled well with slight chance PoPs to the N and W of Tulsa.

Short-term ensemble mean 850mb temp forecast shows little change into Tuesday from Monday, so the plan is to go with persistence forecast for the most part for Tuesday highs. Using a blend of short-term models for dewpoints, will make a few tweaks to the going Heat Advisory but keep it largely intact.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The southeast CONUS ridge will strengthen toward the middle of the week to near record 500mb heights for this time of year (~600dam) with the ridge center drifting back west toward our area before it weakens by the weekend. As a result, expect above average warmth and mostly dry weather to continue through the work week. There are low chances for afternoon showers and storms Wednesday, mainly in the east. Early signals show a weak front approaching from the west and increasing clouds and rain/storm chances for the weekend. This will cool things off a bit, though there are still no signs of that first true fall- like cold front yet.

Lacy

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Mostly clear to passing high clouds continue tonight for the CWA. During the day Tuesday, scattered diurnal cumulus clouds are forecast with southerly winds gusting 10 to 25KT. Late afternoon into Tuesday evening, convection to the northwest of the CWA could develop an outflow boundary that moves into northeast Oklahoma. At this time the greater shower/storm potential remains just northwest of KBVO, though scattered/broken high clouds are forecast for the northern portion of the CWA. VFR conditions should persist through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TSA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>058-060>071-073>075-172-176-254-272-276-354- 376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.