Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Rain chances increase for parts of northeast Oklahoma beginning early Friday morning, becoming more widespread on Saturday.

- The potential for an impactful storm system early next week continues to increase, but specifics continue to be fine-tuned.

- A cold front early next week will drop temperatures closer to seasonal average by midweek.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A weak mid-level shortwave trough continues to maneuver north/northeast across northern Mexico/southwest Texas tonight. Low to medium rain chances will develop after midnight, initially across southeast Oklahoma, spreading northward through the morning Friday as a mid-level vort max moves across the area. Latest CAMs are in decent agreement showing the majority of the spotty showers generally confined near and west of the Bartlesville to Hugo line. Instability will be limited over the next 24 hours, and thus left out the mention of any thunder through the daytime Friday.

As the vort max lifts out of the area, isolated rain showers are forecast to linger across northeast Oklahoma through late morning and possibly into the early afternoon hours, with mostly dry weather by mid-afternoon. The presence of widespread cloud cover and precipitation will hold daytime heating in check, with highs on Friday topping out mainly in the low to mid-70s.

Mejia

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Rain chances will increase and become more widespread Friday night and through much of Saturday as the mid-level shortwave tracks directly over the forecast area. Instability remains very limited, with CAPE values generally under 300 J/kg through the daytime Saturday. This should keep thunder probs low, but non- zero...generally 10 percent or lower. Light to moderate showers will gradually decrease from west-to-east Saturday afternoon/evening before ending early Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts Friday through Sunday morning should be less than half an inch, with only the NAM showing pockets of higher amounts in places.

A brief lull in precipitation is expected Sunday into early Monday as the shortwave clears and weak mid-level ridging builds in. This will allow afternoon highs to rebound into the mid-to- upper 70s under partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies.

Attention then shifts to an increasingly dynamic system slated for early next week. Global deterministic models continue to signal an amplified upper-level trough moving onshore across the West Coast. This trough will merge with a secondary upper-level low over the Desert Southwest Sunday night into Monday morning. The resultant trough and its axis will move over the Southern Plains by Monday afternoon, increasing instability and drastically spreading deep moisture into the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances will trend higher and spread from northwest to southeast beginning early Monday morning. Model consensus indicates the highest chances and heaviest rain will occur along and just ahead of an approaching surface cold front Monday evening/night and into Tuesday morning. Instability, bulk shear, and a plethora of moisture will all be sufficient for a limited potential for strong and/or severe thunderstorms; exact details will be refined over the next few days. Anomalously high PWATs will surge into the area late Sunday night, increasing to over 1.5 inches and peaking near 2.0 inches along the cold front. This will likely result in heavy rain, especially Monday evening/night and into Tuesday morning when the heaviest rain is expected to fall. Isolated flash flooding will be possible. There is still considerable model/ensemble variance regarding the exact timing of the front, with the NBM solution showing it pushing into the CWA sometime mid-morning Tuesday. In the wake of the front, high pressure will bring a noticeable, seasonable fall cooldown through the remainder of the forecast period, with highs dropping back into the mid-to-upper 60s and lower 70s and widespread overnight lows falling into the 40s.

Mejia

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Patchy fog may continue to impact KBVO/KRVS/KFYV early this morning before lifting. Scattered showers may occur at the eastern Oklahoma sites this morning into early afternoon, with the greatest impacts likely at KBVO. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TSA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.