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000 FXUS62 KTBW 301835 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 235 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered light showers will move east to west across areas around I-4 southward for the rest of the day then again tomorrow afternoon and evening.
- Higher shower chances with a few thunderstorms possible late Sunday and into Monday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Upper-level ridging remains across Florida today with surface high pressure over the southeastern U.S. This pattern generally remains in place through tomorrow, with east-northeast winds continuing along with a few showers moving east to west each afternoon. As we head into Sunday, a disturbance aloft will move across the northern Gulf coast and eventually over Florida through Monday. This will enhance lift across the region and help generate numerous showers and a few thunderstorms across the local area. Highest rain chances are during the daytime hours on Sunday, then rain will generally end west to east on Monday as the disturbance and the surface low that tries to form both shift out of the area. High pressure will then build back in for most of the rest of the week before a front approaches and moves through the region Thursday into Friday.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day. Some lower clouds are possible tonight into tomorrow morning, but chances appear lower than they were for this morning so have left out of the TAFs for now. East-northeast winds continue through tomorrow, with some gusts to around 20 knots expected at times.
MARINE
Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 East-northeast winds to exercise caution and near advisory levels will remain over the waters through the next several days. Rain chances increase for Sunday into Monday, then high pressure and drier weather returns for mid-week with winds diminishing.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Rain chances increase for Sunday into Monday with numerous showers and a few storms expected, then high pressure builds back in for mid-week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| TPA | 72 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 40% | 70% |
| FMY | 74 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 10% | 40% | 40% | 80% |
| GIF | 72 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 50% | 80% |
| SRQ | 73 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 0% | 40% | 40% | 80% |
| BKV | 70 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 40% | 70% |
| SPG | 73 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 0% | 30% | 40% | 80% |
TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.