Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected today, with heat index values generally reaching 100-107 degrees, especially over the Florida counties.

- Strong northeast winds will cause hazardous marine conditions across the northeast Gulf waters tonight through Thursday afternoon.

- A high risk of rip currents at local beaches is expected through late this week.

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM

(Today through next Monday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Surface ridging will build south through the Appalachians beginning today while the surface high pressure slides off the northeast US coast. Upper high remains in the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday. A weak surface boundary will lead the push of drier air and an uptick in breezy northeasterly winds progged to reach the area late this afternoon along I-75. Before this, today will be another day of highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s yielding heat index values of 100-107 (higher end of range closer to the coast where the higher dewpoints will reside). Any showers that develop would be relegated to the immediate coast and eastern Big Bend.

The dry air will push PWATs down towards an inch Wednesday and Thursday while breezy northeast winds pick up with gusts around 25 mph in the late morning through afternoon hours. Dewpoints may actually dip into the upper 50s across the wiregrass Wednesday and Thursday while highs will be slightly cooler with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows Thursday morning will fall into the mid 60s through the wiregrass which is a welcome change, albeit brief, from the lower 70s south of I-10. Rain chances will be limited and generally over the Gulf waters and Florida Big Bend.

An upper low will reach the Bahamas Thursday moving westward into the northeast Gulf Friday, then the Global models diverge on how to handle the movement of this feature through the weekend (Euro keeps the upper low to our east into early next week whereas the GFS continues its trek westward towards the mouth of the Mississippi river). Regardless, the upper high retreats westward relinquishing the hold on drier air through the column as PWATs gradually work towards 2 inches this weekend. As such, rain chances make a return first south of I-10 Friday then back into the entirety of the area this weekend. As the subsidence exits stage left and the upper low, clouds, and higher rain chances envelope the area, highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s this weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog is possible late in the night near VLD with MVFR vsbys possible. Otherwise, the only other impact in the TAF period will be gusty easterly winds late morning through the afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt possible at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Winds become northeast to east this morning as high pressure builds to our north. Initial light to moderate winds become moderate to strong beginning this evening as easterly surges develop over the Gulf waters through Thursday afternoon. Although a reprieve in the strong winds may occur Wednesday afternoon, it will be short-lived with strong winds returning Wednesday night persisting into Thursday afternoon. As a result of the stronger winds, seas will build to 4 to 6 feet, with occasional 8 feet in offshore waters. Small craft advisories are in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas will gradually relax into next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

As high pressure builds to the northeast, transport winds will become easterly with speeds of 10-15 mph today and 15-20 mph for Wednesday and Thursday. Dispersion values will increase to high for the Florida and Alabama Wiregrass regions, and the ANF near and along I-10 today. High dispersions continue for Wednesday and Thursday, with pockets of high dispersions throughout all the districts. As drier air will be filtering in, afternoon humidities will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s through much of the week. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s today with heat indices ranging from 100-107. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast beginning Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

No flash or riverine flooding expected over the next week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.