Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters, winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the marine zones through Monday.

- Rain returns today with isolated thunderstorms possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Showers and storms across the Big Bend and offshore should gradually diminish over the rest of the afternoon and evening. Radar signatures show that there may be a wake low developing on the back end of the stratiform rain shield, which is currently over Liberty and Franklin Co. This feature may produce some additional gusty winds near 30 to 40 mph even after the rain moves out of the area. Otherwise, breezy ENE to E winds are expected to continue into Monday due to a fairly tight pressure gradient over the region. A few showers and storms will be possible Monday afternoon across the eastern Big Bend, but widespread rain is not expected. Lows tonight are forecast in the upper 50s to mid 60s with high temperatures Monday in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Easterly winds are forecast to continue Tuesday before gradually becoming southeasterly on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Rain chances increase Wednesday as a very moist air mass remains overhead but begin to taper off as the front actually arrives Thursday due to the parent low and upper support moving off to the northeast. The already slow front will creep across the region Thursday before a shortwave comes along Friday and sweeps this front and a weaker reinforcing front through the region. The end result of these weak fronts is high temperatures back into the 70s and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s over the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

A few showers linger near KTLH and KVLD this evening and will continue to do so for a few hours longer. A little bit of clearing is forecast to take place this evening, but most locations will likely experience MVFR conditions this evening into Monday morning. There are some indications of IFR ceilings attempting to develop late tonight into early Monday morning, but confidence wasn't high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. VFR conditions are forecast to prevail by Monday afternoon at the latest. Some gusty winds are expected by mid to late Monday morning before beginning to calm later in the afternoon near the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Easterly winds will be producing Advisory level conditions through the rest of the weekend, as a Gulf low traverses east and over the peninsula by Monday. Winds and seas will diminish following the passage of the low pressure system, returning to more moderate breezes by Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Breezy ENE to E winds over the next couple of days will keep dispersions on the higher side despite fairly low mixing heights. Showers and a few storms today should gradually diminish this evening and tonight. Only a few showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday and Tuesday across the eastern Big Bend before rain chances increase again Wednesday ahead of the next frontal system.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Despite areas of heavy rain this morning, the heaviest rain fell along the coast and is not expected to produce river flooding. After today, the next substantial chance for rain comes ahead of the next front Wednesday. Additional isolated instances of flooding will be possible, but widespread flooding or river flooding are not expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EST Monday for FLZ115.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday for GMZ751- 752-755-770-772-775.