Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by late Monday afternoon, increasing Monday evening and Monday night.

- A few of the storms across the northern Big Country Monday afternoon and evening could reach severe levels. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

- Gusty north to northwest winds on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The bulk of the significant precipitation has moved off to the east and out of the area. However, with weak shortwave energy moving across the area today and low level moisture in place, we could see a few spotty showers into the evening hours. Although it will be mostly cloudy as well, temperatures should warm a few degrees into the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area for afternoon highs. While there hasn't been any dense fog down to a quarter mile in the area this evening, much of the area does have visibilities of less than 5 miles, and this may continue through most of the morning today. There may be some breaks in the cloud cover overnight as temperatures drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s. There is a possibility for some patchy overnight fog as radiational cooling allows temperatures to drop down to area dewpoint values.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Temperatures will be warmer Sunday as a shortwave upper ridge moves east over Texas. May see some breaks in the clouds in the afternoon, but skies overall are expected to stay mostly cloudy with moist southerly low-level flow. Expect highs to be the upper 70s to lower 80s in our northern and central counties, and mid to upper 70s farther south.

A large scale upper low and trough will move east into the western CONUS Sunday, and overspread the Rockies on Monday. A low is progged to develop in the southern portion of this trough over northern New Mexico, and then track across the Texas Panhandle and lift to the Kansas/Oklahoma border Monday night. Cold front associated with this system is forecast to move southeast across our area Monday night. The track of the upper low and trough will be important for rain chances late Monday and Monday night. A track a little farther to the north would, for the most part, result in dry slotting for our area. At this time, appears that there will be enough lift, moisture and instability for a band of showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front, as it pushes across our area. The higher rain chances and better coverage of convection look to be in our eastern and southeastern counties where more moisture should be available. Should also mention that SPC has the northern Big Country in a Day 4 Slight Risk of severe storms primarily for late Monday afternoon and evening.

Cooler air will follow this frontal passage and will be accompanied by breezy north-northwest winds on Tuesday. After a warm day Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, highs Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 70s. May see some wrap around cloud cover over the northeast part of our area on Tuesday, as moisture wraps around the departing upper system. Dry weather to follow for Wednesday and Thursday, as surface high pressure settles into Texas by Wednesday and shifts to the east on Thursday. Dry weather to continue Friday with south winds returning. After the period of well-above normal morning low temperatures our area has seen in the past several days, will have a couple of cool nights Tuesday night and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Daytime temperatures look pleasant Wednesday into Friday with forecast highs in the 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Conditions have improved slightly over the last few hours, with a couple sites rising into the MVFR category. Most terminals will remain IFR or MVFR through this morning. Models suggest some improvement this afternoon with better heating than yesterday. Could see one or two locations even reach VFR levels for a few hours late this afternoon. Conditions are expected to fall back into IFR and MVFR during the overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.