Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures and generally dry weather expected through the end of the work week.

- Rain chances return this weekend along with temperatures closer to seasonal normals.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Skies were clear across west central Texas early this morning with mild temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds were from the south at 5 to 10 MPH. At the upper-levels, a 596 dam ridge was centered over the southeastern US while a trough axis was located over the west coast. This placed west central Texas in weak southwest flow aloft. At the surface a low pressure system with a stalled frontal boundary was located over the central Plains with surface troughing located from the Panhandle southwestward across New Mexico. This setup should keep breezy southerly winds in place across much of our region again today. Gusts in some locations could exceed 25 MPH this afternoon and evening. Unseasonably warm temperatures should occur again with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Winds should decrease overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. will expand westward into our area from Wednesday through Saturday. The ridge will not be quite as strong as it has been the last week, but temperatures will still be well above normal- in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. As mentioned in the previous AFD a pattern shift late in the weekend into early next week. An upper level trough is forecast to deepen over the Rockies which will help to weaken the upper ridge and send a frontal boundary into our area. There remains uncertainty in how the large scale pattern will evolve early next week so will stick with the model blends for this forecast package. By Monday highs are forecast to be closer to seasonal normals (upper 80s to lower 90s) with a 30-50% chance of scattered showers on both Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected today although some brief MVFR ceilings could occur through 15Z this morning around Junction. Otherwise, southerly winds will increase through the morning to around 15KT with some gusts over 25KT this afternoon. Winds should diminish after 00Z this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.