Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Heat advisory headlines continue today with future extensions likely for Wednesday.

- Rain chances remain slim to none through the remainder of this week into the first half of the weekend due to upper ridging.

- The upper-level ridge is expected to weaken by Sunday with an upper low drifting westward over the northern Gulf, providing for increasing rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Persistence forecasting relies on the past to help predict the future, and let's just say it's getting old fast at this point. Our extended stretch of late summer heat, well above average for mid-September, has the remainder of this week to go with a decent chance of adding more triple-digit high temperatures to our tally. Most areas will push into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees once again this afternoon. Then we repeat the cycle each day through the end of this week as the center of ridge axis slowly migrates back across our region. So it's not out of the questions that we could actually see high temperatures trend a degree or two higher as we move later in the week, but who's counting at this point?!

Meanwhile, rain chances are barely worth a mention with only the slimmest of chances at landing under a brief shower or storm each afternoon this week. With the need for heat advisories likely for at least a few more days, heat safety precautions should continue to be top of mind this week with all outdoor recreation and work activities. This dangerous heat risk will pose a threat for rapid onset of heat-related illnesses if precautions are not properly adhered to while spending extended time outdoors.

As we have referenced in recent discussions, changes do appear to be finally on the horizon. Model guidance continues to favor a break in this heat by late in the upcoming weekend as an upper low shifts westward across the northern Gulf. This low should help to shunt the ridge farther westward, allowing for increasing moisture from the Gulf and an uptick in rain chances by Sunday. Additional rain chances and cooler temperatures should also extend into the following week as a cold front appears poised to shift south into our area just in time for the first day of fall on September 22nd.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For the 15/06z TAF update...I have maintained some mention of lower, but still VFR CIGs for KSHV, KTYR, KGGG towards morning, with some MVFR CIGs mentioned for KLFK. Not super confident that KLFK will drop that low, but since the chances are there I would rather make mention of it. Otherwise, we should see more CU develop Tuesday afternoon across the region, however, I did leave mention of VCTS out as I don't think we will see as widespread convection chances on Tuesday. Winds will remain light throughout this period.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.