Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light showers (30-70%) at times across portions of the area from this evening into Sunday. Periods of dry time accompany this system.

- Gusty southerly winds will occur on Monday. The strongest winds will generally occur along and west of Highway 65.

- Increasing confidence in additional rain chances early to the middle of next week but there is still uncertainty with specific details.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

An upper level shortwave trough is currently located across the southern Plains early this morning. An upper level ridge remains over the region ahead of the trough. A front is located across northeastern Kansas into northern Missouri early this morning, with showers and storms developing along the front. A drier air mass remains in place across the area, so the convection is expected to remain north of the area where the better lift and moisture is in place this morning.

The upper level shortwave trough will move northeast today with moisture increase across the area from the southwest. There is a low chances for a few isolated storms across the far western/northwestern portions of the area this afternoon, but most areas should remain dry this afternoon as the better chances remain west and north of the area through this afternoon.

This evening into tonight lift will increase as the upper level trough moves towards the area. Moisture will also increase today ahead of the trough. Periods of scattered light rain showers will be possible at times as energy and lift move across the area this evening into early Saturday morning. Instability will be limited so not expected much lightning potential overnight. There may be a brief break in the periods of scattered rain Saturday morning as the first wave of upper level energy moves north of the area.

Additional energy will move into the the area Saturday afternoon and evening and will slowly move east through the area through Sunday. Cloud ice will decrease across much of the area as the first wave of energy moves off to the northeast Saturday afternoon and evening. Low level moisture and lift will continue to move across the area Saturday evening into Sunday and cloud linger into Sunday night across the eastern portions of the area as the trough slowly moves to the east. With the lack of instability periods of drizzle/light rain showers will likely occur at times Saturday evening into Sunday and could linger into early Monday morning across the eastern portions of the area at times as bands of lift moves through the region.

A warm air mass remains in place across the area today, but an increase in mid to high clouds will keep highs a few degrees cooler than yesterday with reading in the middle 70s to near 80 today. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the lower to middle 70s as increased cloud cover and light rain chances occur at times.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Surface low pressure will move northeast across the central Plains on Monday. The pressure gradient will increase across the area ahead of the surface low. As a result gusty southerly winds will develop on Monday. Gusts up to 30 to 40 mph will be possible at times with the strongest winds generally along and west of Highway 65.

The ensemble model members continue to show the upper low moving on the west coast this weekend and phasing with an upper level trough. The trough will move east towards then across the region early to the middle of next week. There continues to be differences between the model members on the exact timing, track, and structure of the system some have the trough closing into an upper level low while others keep an open wave. The current chances for showers and storms are highest (60-90%) from late Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances could lingering through mid week, especially if the trough closes off. Deep layer shear will increase across the region ahead of the system but instability may remain more limited which would limit the severe potential. If more instability can develop there could be the potential for some strong to severe storms across portions of the region but confidence remains low on the specifics.

Rain may linger across the area through the middle of next week as the upper level low3 moves off to the east. Cooler conditions will occur next week with temperatures closer to normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

High clouds remain over the area early this morning and mid level clouds will increase across the area today. There is a low potential for a few isolated showers and storms this afternoon across extreme southeastern Kansas and west central MO, but this activity should remain west and north of the TAF sites. A few isolated showers will be possible this evening with period of scattered light showers possible tonight into Saturday morning. There is the potential for MVFR conditions with in the periods of rain at times tonight into Satruday morning.

SGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.