Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for south-central and southwest Missouri, and extreme southeast Kansas today and in effect for the entire area on Tuesday. Highs in the 90s with heat index values of 100-105 can be expected during this period.

- Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, mainly north of I-44. There is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk of severe weather for locations north of Highway 54 Tuesday into Tuesday night. The main risk will be damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and lightning. - Isolated afternoon/evening storms will be possible across portions of the are area each day the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

An upper level ridge of high pressure and a hot air mass has moved over the region this afternoon. Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 90s this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the area today, except for portions of central Missouri as heat index values around 100 to 105 degrees will occur into this evening.

Instability is increasing mainly along and west of Highway 65 this afternoon and a cumulus cloud field has developed in these locations. The cap is weakening but is not totally eroding this afternoon. There is a low chance (<10%) for an isolated shower/storm this afternoon west of Highway 65, but most if not all locations should remain dry today as lift remains weak today.

Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s across south central Missouri to near 80 across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The upper level ridge and hot air mass will remain over the region through much of the week. 850mb temperatures in the lower 20C will be in place resulting in highs in the middle to upper 90s and lows in the 70s the rest of the week and possibly into the start of the weekend. The ensemble model members show an upper level trough and a front approaching the area late this weekend which would result in slightly cooler temperatures across the area. The Heat Advisory is now in effect for the entire area on Tuesday as highs in the middle to upper 90s with heat index values around 100 to 105 degrees are expected.

Instability and the cap will weaken with the heating of the day each day this week and could result in isolated pulse type storms during the afternoon/evening hours Tuesday through the Friday. A weak front will push south into the northern portions of the area later Tuesday into Tuesday night. The front will bring scattered storm chances to the area, mainly north of I-44 Tuesday evening and night. With the boundary over the area and uncapped MUCAPE in place all night, storms could occur off and on through much of the night north of the front into early Wednesday morning. The low level flow and storm mode will be south to north across the area, so its possible that if storms develop and create an outflow it could pushes the activity/effected front back to the north of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There will be the potential for a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds the main risk mainly north of Highway 54 on Tuesday into Tuesday night. The front will push back to the north on Wednesday with the better widespread rain chances remaining north of the area through the rest of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Ceilings will be VFR through the period with breezy southeasterly winds overnight near 10 knots. Winds turn southwesterly and become gusty by late morning and gust up to 25 knots. Winds turn back to the southeast after 00z and diminish to around 10 knots.

SGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066>068- 077>082-088>098-101>106. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-069>071-083.