Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Timing of the mid to late week system is trending slower.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Much of the area should remain dry into early next week, then a system brings widespread precipitation chances mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Although mostly cloudy conditions will persist as a shortwave approaches from the west, high pressure and dry air lingering in the low-levels are expected to maintain dry conditions within the forecast area today. A few showers may edge into the area, mainly along and west of the Ohio River, as high pressure retreats east and the shortwave passes overhead tonight into Monday.

The next opportunity for precipitation arrives when an upper trough and associated systems pivot into the Middle Ohio Valley mid to late week. Discrepancies in forecast models lead to low confidence in precipitation amounts and the timing of the systems.

Temperatures will remain above normal though at least the middle of the week. Cooler air transported down into the area by the aforementioned upper trough should allow temperatures to become more seasonable for the end of the week.

AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions and BKN to OVC cloud cover are expected to continue for the duration of the TAF period. South to southeast flow will remain light across the lowlands while 15-20kt breezes are expected along the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SUN 11/01/26 UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY... There is a slight chance for rain showers to affect KHTS Monday morning, but VFR otherwise into Monday.

RLX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.