Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Large air / river water temperature spread this morning and associated moisture flux has quickly helped to facilitate widespread river valley fog southeast of the Ohio River. Given such, have significantly increased progged fog coverage across the area this morning in the river valleys, with dense fog expected in some locations. In addition, have lowered morning temperatures by a few degrees in most locations. The rest of the forecast remains on track, with an updated 06Z aviation discussion also issued.

As of 214 PM Monday...

Otherwise, forecast remains on track with previous cycles amid high pressure and warming temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure establishes itself over the area through midweek, promoting dry weather and warming temperatures.

2) Turning active once more beginning on Thursday with the arrival of a cold front. The front is progged to stall in close vicinity to the forecast area late in the week into the weekend, serving up daily chances of showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Satellite imagery shows one final patch of stratus eroding across the southwestern portions of the forecast area this afternoon, with cumulus fields and sunshine prevailing elsewhere. High pressure takes center stage for the first half of the work week, beginning over the Great Lakes today and gradually sliding towards the eastern seaboard for Tuesday and Wednesday. Coupled with upper level ridging aloft, mostly dry weather is anticipated to rule the roost through midweek.

In the process of the surface high's eastward journey, a warming trend is set to ensue. A taste of fall is currently underway today across the Central Appalachians, with daytime highs in the 70s and dew points in the 50s/60s. Temperatures more indicative of summertime then triumph over the region for the rest of the work week. Heat and humidity will impose afternoon heat indices stretching back into the upper 90s for many locations across the lowlands by Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The second half of the work week into the weekend turns more active as the upper level ridge breaks down and allows a front boundary to drape down from the north. While uncertainty remains on whether the front makes a complete passage through the area then returning as a warm front or wobbles overhead through the upcoming weekend, model ensembles signal daily chances of showers and storms within the presence of this boundary. Embedded shortwaves flowing along the front will serve up potential for severe weather and flash flooding concerns across the Ohio Valley at times, consistent with previous active patterns the region has faced within the past month.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Widespread river valley fog has quickly developed across much of the area this morning, with LIFR/VLIFR restrictions likely at CRW/EKN/PKB. Restrictions could also occur at CKB/HTS, but confidence is lower there, with TEMPO groups inserted into their TAFs for the late overnight. Fog will lift dissipate from ~ 1130-1330Z on Tuesday morning. This gives way to continued dry weather and widespread VFR through the remainder of the day. A FEW/SCT (025-045) Cu field is expected late morning into the afternoon across portions of the area, especially in/near the higher terrain. Some river valley fog will begin to develop towards the end of the TAF period (06Z Wednesday).

Calm or light SE flow is expected for the remainder of the overnight, with light and generally SSW to SE flow during the day today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog this morning, otherwise high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage, timing, and associated restrictions this morning may vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR w/ stratocu could occur at BKW late this morning into the early afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE TUE 09/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L M M L H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L H H H H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Patchy IFR conditions are possible with river valley fog each morning throughout the work week, most likely in the valleys in and near the higher terrain.

RLX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.