Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation section for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Generally tranquil weather is expected to prevail through the early portion of next week.

2. Rain is expected to return late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally tranquil weather is expected to prevail through the early portion of next week.

High pressure is now building in to the region and will remain through the middle of next week with continuing mild and dry conditions expected.

Conditions will turn cooler again for the weekend. Lows tonight through Sunday night will be mainly in the low 30s to mid 40s. Widespread frost currently appears unlikely where the growing season continues, although we could see some frost development in the remaining PA and NJ counties. Highs will be coolest on Halloween, in the upper 50s to low 60s, under partly cloudy skies. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday, but a bit milder with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Scattered to broken cloud cover will persist into early next week despite surface high pressure. Temperatures are expected to increase back to above normal values early next week, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and milder overnights.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain is expected to return late next week.

The stretch of dry weather is expected to come to an end late next week as a period of rainfall is expected to move into the area as a storm system affects the region Thursday through at least Friday. Early in the week, a cold front will be moving across the central part of the country. The parent low moves across the Great Lakes and into Canada later in the week, while a secondary low develops and moves into the southern states by mid week. This low is expected to strengthen as it moves into the Mid Atlantic and northeast states later in the week, bringing our area a period of rain.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR. North to northwest winds near 5 kts. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR. North to northwest winds increasing to around 10 kts early, then diminishing to 5 kts or less late. High confidence.

Saturday night...VFR. Northerly winds less than 5 kts to calm. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE

Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts through this evening with seas 3 to 5 feet.

The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware, and Delaware Bay, through 2 AM Saturday.

Northerly winds and seas will then lessen overnight, with northwest winds staying below 20 kts on Saturday with fair weather.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...No marine hazards expected. Fair weather.

Wednesday...Seas may reach low-end Small Craft Advisory criteria.

PHI WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ430-431-450>455.