Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the 7-day forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Mainly quiet this week with high pressure in control.

2. Somewhat unsettled weather will be possible at times late this week and next weekend as multiple systems move through. However at this point significant impacts due not appear likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly quiet this week with high pressure in control.

An expansive area of high pressure will remain in control through Thursday resulting in a stretch of nice mid-September days.

A sunny day is on tap for today with light east winds as the high slightly shifts to the east. Expect highs mainly in the middle to upper 70s with 60s to low 70s over the Poconos into NW NJ. Humidity levels will remain comfortable.

By Wednesday, temperatures climb into the above normal range with highs in the low to mid 80s. This stretch of above normal temperatures should continue until Friday with increasing levels of humidity through the period.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Somewhat unsettled weather will be possible at times late this week and next weekend as multiple systems move through. However at this point significant impacts due not appear likely.

A cold front still looks to move southward through the area Thursday night into Friday and this could result in a few showers. However, guidance has backed off on coverage of showers and now the end of the week looks to overall remain mainly dry for most.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the aformentioned front may try to push back northward as a warm front by late Saturday followed by another cold front Sunday Night as low pressure moves by north of the area. This will bring additional chances for showers and perhaps a few storms with the highest probability for precipitation looking to be late Sunday into Monday.

Medium range guidance shows the unsettled period continuing into early next week with multiple waves of low pressure moving through. Still over 5 days out, so things could change with the forecast and it is a bit early to get into specific impacts. However, there is no real overwhelming signal in both deterministic and ensembles of any major impacts at this time with these systems.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...VFR. North/northeast winds around 5 kt or less. High confidence.

Today...VFR. Winds gradually veering through the morning, starting out of the north/northeast and eventually becoming southeasterly for the afternoon around 5 to 8 kt. High confidence.

Tuesday Night...VFR. Light south/southeasterly winds 5 kt or less.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Saturday...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (15-20%) of showers though widespread restrictions look unlikely.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions expected through tonight. Northeasterly winds around 10-20 kt this morning will decrease to under 10 kt for the afternoon and overnight hours. Winds also turn more east/southeasterly for the afternoon and evening hours. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip Currents...

Today...East-northeast winds around 10 mph with breaking wave heights of 1 to 3 feet. An underlying 2 to 3 foot northeast swell will continue around 5 to 6 seconds. Given these conditions, have opted to maintain a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

Wednesday...Light and variable winds in the morning, will settle out of the south-southeast in the afternoon around 5 to 10 mph. Breaking wave heights will range between 1 to 3 feet. A 1 foot southeast swell will propagate toward the region in the afternoon around 7 to 8 seconds in length. Given these conditions, have opted to go with a LOW risk for rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.