Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain and storm chances increase late Wednesday into early Friday, highest for the day on Thursday. Low, but non-zero flood and severe weather risks are forecast.

2) A more unsettled weather pattern returns for the weekend with more rain chances and more seasonable temperatures. Uncertainty in the weather pattern increases into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front is expected to sag down into the Great Lakes region Wednesday into Friday. This will generally bring ascent and a saturating trend to the atmospheric column. Rain chances increase throughout the day on Wednesday. A few showers are possible in the morning (highest north of I-80) in weak ascent, but highest chances work their way into the I-80 corridor and portions on northeast Ohio late Wednesday with models hinting at a stronger pre-frontal trough in mid-level ascent, and better timing to utilize daytime destabilization. At this moment, median SBCAPE is only a few hundred Joules, with sfc-6km shear at 20-25kts and DCAPE not particularly high at 400. This alludes to low severe potential, however PWATS pushing 1.8-2.0 inches allude to flood threats, which will likely only be realized in the event of training.

A slow moving frontal passage into Thursday will bring higher chancres of rain, overall. Shear remains non-dissimilar from the day prior, though ensembles indicate an uptick in instability (1000-1500 J/kg) and DCAPE (600-900). PWATs at this point will be pushing 2.0-2.1 inches, which would be an all-time record for that calendar date. Though flow will generally be progressive, with a slow moving front, we will have to monitor for training potential in storms. Overall, the severe risk remains very low and the flood risk remains low, but increasing some. Rain chances persist through Thursday night, generally moving south of I-70 by Friday morning as the front sags. With probabilistic guidance dominated by global model output this far, we will have to wait for convective models to start being ingested to better estimate high-end rain potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There is fairly high confidence that the region will sit on the northeast side of a east-central CONUS ridge into the weekend, which generally brings south-southwest surface flow and west- northwest flow aloft. This will keep more moisture, allow for shortwave passage potential and, generally, a pattern of moisture overrunning. This favors wet conditions Saturday through Monday in showers/storms with more seasonable temperatures. This confidence breaks down beyond Monday as the pattern is more bi- modal. Either a front pushes south and brings in cooler and drier conditions for next week, or it remains wetter, warmer, and more unsettled should the upper flow not change much.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Low fog potential lingers early, but still to low to note in any particular TAF. Fog potential will be highest in the river valleys and adjacent ports. Should any fog occur, it will clear abruptly after sunrise, giving way to widely scattered cu and light southerly winds into the day Tuesday. Clouds increase from the northwest late Tuesday night with calming winds.

Outlook... There is a low chance of restrictions in rain Wednesday morning for FKL/DUJ, but otherwise, more widespread storm chances do not increase until Wednesday evening north of PIT. More widespread restriction chances are forecast into Thursday with increasing rain/storm chances.

PBZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

PA...None. OH...None. WV...None.