Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Already minimal rain chances have decreased further early next week. No other major changes were made to the latest forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather is expected to continue until rain chances increase toward the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure will drift east across the region through Sunday, maintaining dry weather. Mid and high clouds are expected to increase in warm advection ahead of a weakening shortwave trough across the Midwest. This trough is progged to cross the Upper Ohio Valley region on Monday, though with diminishing ascent and a lack of deep layer moisture, a dry forecast was maintained.

Model ensembles indicate ridging will build across the Upper Ohio Valley region again Tuesday, with decreased clouds, dry weather, and likely the warmest temperatures of the week. A trough across the central CONUS is then expected to advance eastward on Wednesday, approaching and crossing the region late Wednesday and Thursday. This is expected to bring increasing rain chances, with the highest POPs currently on Thursday. Lingering broad upper troughing should keep rain chances in the forecast at times Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

River valley fog should result in IFR visibility at times for FKL early this morning. Low level moisture could also bring MVFR stratus to DUJ early this morning as well. Otherwise, high pressure should maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period. Increasing mid and high level clouds are expected in warm advection ahead of a weakening shortwave trough across the Midwest.

Outlook... VFR is expected until rain and restriction chances increase Wednesday with approaching low pressure.

PBZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

PA...None. OH...None. WV...None.