Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will move in tonight, with best chances (60-80%) between 11pm tonight and midday Sunday. Forecast rainfall totals range from 0.25 to 0.75 inches area wide. The heaviest totals are expected across west KY into southwest IN.

- Another round of widespread rainfall will arrive Tuesday, then linger through at least Wednesday evening. Forecast rainfall totals are in the 0.75 to 1.5 inch range, heaviest across SEMO into west KY.

- South winds will become gusty on Tuesday with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range possible. There is a 60-80% chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A more unsettled pattern is still on track for the weekend mainly for tonight into Sunday as rain chances(60-80%) move into the area. This will be the result of increasing moisture and an ill- defined/weakening low pressure system passing through the area. There is about a 60% chance of seeing a a half inch of rain or more, largely across western Ky into southwest IN. Timing still looks very similar in keeping most of the Halloween evening dry before rain arrives around or just after 10-11 pm from the west.

After the weekend precipitation, yet another/stronger upper-level low and surface low/cold front are expected to approach/move through the central CONUS Monday night through Wednesday. The surface reflection of the low continues to trend much farther north with the latest guidance. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at a better chance of seeing substantial rainfall with around a 60-80% chance of the Quad State seeing three-quarters of an inch or more of rain Monday night through Wednesday evening. Dewpoints are expected to increase across the area possibly into the 60s by Tuesday afternoon as the upper trough and cold front approach the area. The combination of the added moisture, some instability and shear values approaching 30-40kts will need to be monitored for the possibility of strong to severe storms. Overall details remain murky with much of the upper energy/dynamics remaining well north of the area and better instability well south. Gusty winds outside of any thunderstorms will also develop from the south as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front. In fact there is around a 60-80% chance than wind gusts exceed 30 mph across the area on Tuesday.

Conditions dry out for the end of next week with seasonable temperatures expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

High-level clouds will thicken on Saturday as a storm system approaches the region. While VFR conditions will prevail, low cigs begin to build in from the west at the end of the TAF period as the column begins to saturate with increasing rain chances. Winds on Saturday will be ESE around 6-7 kts.

PAH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.