Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast during this update.

KEY MESSAGES

2) Dry and sunny conditions through midweek, with a gusty N/NW flow today. No hazardous weather expected.

3) Next chance of rain is Thursday into Friday with a cold frontal passage and then potentially again for the second half of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1... With the frontal passage this morning, brief light showers are possible across eastern Long and eastern CT through the next hour or so.

Behind the cold frontal passage, high pressure will build in and remain in control through midweek. Gusty winds are expected. There may be initial gusts with the cold front of around 20 kt and then with deep mixing 20-25 kt are possible during the afternoon. Went a few kt higher than much of the guidance given recent events of guidance under doing cold advection in a N/NW flow.

Additionally, with mixing and the downslope flow, went higher than the NBM and closer to MOS with highs today. This gives highs in the mid to upper 70s for most. Drier air will also be filtering into the area, which will give the air a comfortable feel.

Tonight looks to be ideal radiational cooling conditions for the interior. Along the coast a tighter pressure gradient in the NE flow will likely be enough to stop the Pine Barrens and other usually cooler locations from completely decoupling. Mid to upper 40s expected across the interior for lows tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The next chance of rain looks to be with a cold frontal passage late Thursday into Friday which has trended drier. No impacts are expected at this time.

A more widespread rainfall is possible the second half of this weekend with a frontal system moving in from the west. The guidance is not consistent on how it handles this system and PoPs are capped around 30 percent at this time.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A cold front passes through the area early this morning with high pressure building behind it through tonight into Tuesday.

VFR through the TAF period. A brief, isolated shower possible across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut through 13z.

NW-NNW winds will increase this morning, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt into the afternoon. Gusts may begin diminishing or become occasional after 19z. Winds will diminish below 10 kt this evening and then veer to the N-NNE overnight. Outlying terminals should become light N-NNE or variable. Light NE-ENE winds expected Tuesday morning.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty

Gusts could end up occasional this afternoon after 19z, and may end 1-2 hours sooner than indicated in the TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday-Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night-Friday: Mainly VFR. Low probability of a shower.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Gusty winds behind a cold front are expected this morning through the afternoon. Gusts will peak generally between 20 and 25 kt. Kept the SCA for the eastern two ocean zones. If observed winds start coming in a bit higher there is potential for a SCA to issued for other waters.

Thereafter, winds and waves stay below SCA.

Rip Currents... Low rip current risk today and Tuesday for all ocean beaches. Today, winds will be offshore with only a 2 ft S/SE swell. On Tuesday, the flow will be out of the east with an even weaker swell. RCMOS and local guidance were in agreement with a low risk.

OKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353.