Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased forecast sustained winds and gusts by about 15-25 percent across land and waters for this afternoon into tonight. Expanded SCA for all waters this afternoon into tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There's an elevated risk of fire spread for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut today.

2) Frost-Freeze conditions likely outside of NYC/NJ metro Saturday Night into Sunday AM. Otherwise, dry conditions persist through at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1...

The combination of sufficiently dry fuels, gusty NW winds 25 to 35 mph and relatively low RH values behind a cold frontal passage this morning will lead to an elevated risk of fire spread, particularly for Lower Hudson valley and southern CT this afternoon.

In collaboration with state partners and neighboring forecast offices, a Special Weather Statement for southern Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley remains to highlight this threat thru 6 PM today.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The driest stretch of the year so far persists for the next several days.

Highs today will reach the mid 60s to low 70s before a cold front passes by midday into early afternoon. The cold front will be dry with only brief increasing clouds into the morning, clearing into the evening. Following the front, winds veer NW with gusts 25-35 mph this afternoon into the first half of tonight.

Behind the fropa, dry, cooler conditions settle in for the weekend. Saturday will be cooler as afternoon highs fall back in the upper 50s/lower 60s, with evening temperatures in the 40s and upper 30s outside of NYC.

Overnight lows Saturday night will likely drop into the mid/low 40s in the NYC metro/Nassau, then into the 30s elsewhere. Although some interior spots and the LI Pine Barrens will likely drop below freezing as winds drop off under clear skies allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Frost-freeze conditions are likely Saturday night outside the NYC metro.

Guidance continues to keep dry conditions in place through early next week with temperatures gradually warming each day. Conditions may begin to turn more unsettled by mid to late next week.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR. A cold front moves through later this morning into the afternoon. No precipitation is expected with its passage.

WSW winds become W-NW with the frontal passage. Speeds increase to 10-20 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by late morning, increasing to 20-25 kt during the afternoon. Gusts subside 00-03Z but remain NW.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of onset of stronger winds daytime Fri could occur 1-2 hours earlier than fcst. Ending time of gusts may also be off by 1 or 2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday night and Saturday: VFR. Diminishing NW winds Fri evening.

Sunday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA expanded to all waters for this afternoon into tonight as NW flow gusts around 25 kt after a cold frontal passage in the morning.

Winds will gradually subsides late tonight into Saturday as high pressure build in for the weekend. Sub-SCA conditions then expected on all waters through at least early next week.

OKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.