Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast with the latest update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and sunny conditions through Thursday. No hazardous weather expected.

2) Chances of rain return to the forecast Thursday night into Friday and again late in the weekend into early next week. Limited to low impacts expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level ridge builds in from the southwest today with high pressure building in at the surface. This high will remain in control through Thursday. This pattern will lead to plenty of sun and dry conditions through Thursday.

Another day of below normal highs and drier air today. With the high shifting offshore late today/tonight, the synoptic flow becomes more S/SW which will aid in a return of normal/slightly above normal temps and increasing dewpoints for Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Upper level ridging breaks down late Thursday into Thursday night. A cold front is progged to move through sometime Thursday night into Friday. This will bring the next chance of showers, which remains at slight chance to chance. Given the timing, little to no instability will be available and not expecting any thunderstorms at this time.

The next chance for a more widespread rain is late in the weekend into early next week. At this time, guidance is hinting at the expected frontal system tracking north of the area, which would likely lead to the bulk of the rainfall being farther north. Any instability would probably be limited, so while it's too early to have high confidence, severe weather and flooding chances so far appear to be very low to none.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR with high pressure remains in control through the TAF period.

N winds will continue diminishing through 09z and then remain light into the morning as the direction veers to the NE-ENE. Winds will continue veering to the SE in the afternoon with speeds remaining under 10 kt. SE winds diminish this evening, becoming light and variable overnight.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty

Timing of wind shifts may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Late tonight-Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR. Low probability of a shower Thursday night.

Friday=Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers Saturday night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through at least the first half of the weekend. 25 kt gusts become possible Sunday into early next week with a potential frontal system moving through.

Rip Currents... Low rip current risk today and Wednesday. Winds today will be under 10 kt and a 3ft 6s E swell with a 1 ft 9s SE swell will likely only bring 1 to potentially 2 ft surf height. Winds do increase a bit out of the S/SW for Wednesday, but lack of significant swell will likely keep the risk at low. There is potential for an upgrade to moderate for Wednesday if the forecast winds or swell trend higher.

OKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.