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Letterhead and timestamp

000 FXUS64 KOHX 150515 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026...New AVIATION...

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Rain will diminish from west to east overnight.

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through today with record highs possible.

- A dry, breezy cold front will arrive on Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures this weekend and into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Rain and thunderstorms are riding the KY/TN state line tonight from west to east. This activity is expected to stay north of I-40 and continue to weaken through the night. There is a slim chance for some patchy fog after the rain passes through overnight, with temperatures bottoming out in the 60s.

Thursday should shake out to be a nice, albeit hot, day. The potential remains for record to be broken in the high temperature department, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. But skies will be clearing up through the morning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The cold front that lags behind the rain we saw today is expected to swing through on Friday. This frontal passage looks to be dry, with the exception of some low rain chances on the Cumberland Plateau. After this, we're not expecting any rain for the remainder of the forecast period. Overall, we're looking at highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 30s and 40s for the weekend. Our temperatures will drop so much that we could see our first frost of the season on the Cumberland Plateau on Sunday morning. Sadly, it will only be a taste of fall, as the return of clearer skies will also bring back the heat. Highs by mid-week next week will creep back up into the upper 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions persist with the exception of CKV where dense fog will impact the terminal through 14Z. Light and variable winds overnight will shift southwesterly after 15Z with sustained speeds between 5-10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Temperatures Chance of Precipitation
Location Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day
Nashville 92 ℉ 63 ℉ 69 ℉ 46 ℉ 10% 0% 20% 0%
Clarksville 91 ℉ 58 ℉ 66 ℉ 44 ℉ 10% 10% 10% 0%
Crossville 85 ℉ 62 ℉ 73 ℉ 41 ℉ 10% 0% 30% 20%
Columbia 93 ℉ 63 ℉ 72 ℉ 45 ℉ 0% 0% 20% 0%
Cookeville 88 ℉ 63 ℉ 70 ℉ 44 ℉ 10% 0% 40% 10%
Jamestown 86 ℉ 63 ℉ 72 ℉ 43 ℉ 10% 10% 40% 20%
Lawrenceburg 91 ℉ 63 ℉ 73 ℉ 44 ℉ 0% 0% 20% 0%
Murfreesboro 93 ℉ 64 ℉ 72 ℉ 45 ℉ 0% 0% 20% 0%
Waverly 90 ℉ 59 ℉ 64 ℉ 45 ℉ 10% 0% 20% 0%

OHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.

SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Baggett