Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Prolonged heat and humidity continues this week, warranting a Heat Advisory for most of Middle TN through Wednesday evening.

- Rain chances remain low through Saturday and begin to increase Sunday and Monday.

- A gradual cooldown is on tap Sunday into early next week, but temperatures remain above-normal for the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

This evening's 00Z analysis placed a 595 dam midlevel ridge centered over Middle TN. For mid September, this is about the 99th percentile of 500 mb height climatology. This extremely late season ridging will manifest in heat impacts for much of the Tennessee River Valley this week. High temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 90s. HREF probabilities are hinting at a low chance (30%) of Nashville hitting 100 degrees Tuesday, which would be the second latest 100 degree day at BNA on record. This heat also comes with an uncomfortable tinge of humidity, warranting a Heat Advisory for the majority of the area through Wednesday evening. A potential extension of the Advisory through Thursday was discussed on shift, but things are looking much more borderline on Thursday so did not opt for an extension just yet.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

We'll be stuck in this hot and dry pattern through at least the end of the week. Low-end PoPs remain confined to the Plateau, leaving the rest of Middle TN with upper 90s temperatures and no rain to provide any relief. The upper level pattern finally begins to flatten out a bit as we move into the weekend. In the absence of such prominent ridging aloft, temperatures naturally trend back toward normal, finally dropping back below 90 degrees after the passage of a bonafide cold front on Monday. Tuesday continues on the wetter and cooler trend, finally ushering in the first taste of fall.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. We will see quiet weather with a few mid-level clouds during the afternoon. Southerly winds up to 8 knots after 15z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ005>010-023>033-056>065-075-077-078-093>095.