Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler air arrives Thursday through the weekend with highs in the 40s. Morning lows fall into the 20s on Friday and Saturday.

- Forecast has trended drier for Sunday.

- Warming trend occurs for the first half of next week. Next best chance for rain is on Wednesday (20-40% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

4z RAP objective analysis depicts H5 ridging over the western CONUS, while a broad trof sits across the eastern CONUS. At the sfc, the pressure gradient has relaxed a bit helping the gusty winds subside.

This morning, will see a shortwave trof within the broad longwave swing south across portions of the Northern Plains. The accompanying vorticity ribbon will traverse portions of the area. Combined with some H8 CAA helping to steepen low level lapse rates, could see some sprinkles/isolated showers develop, primarily along the mid-Missouri River Valley and points to the east. Have left PoPs of 10-14% for some sprinkles in this general area for most of the daytime hours. Expect a cool day with highs in the 40s.

Sfc high pressure over Manitoba will sink southward into the region tonight into Friday. Expect a chilly overnight and morning with lows in the 20s. A mix of clouds and sun is expected for the daytime with similar highs to today. Another chilly night is expected too with lows in the 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

An H5 longwave will move from the Pacific Coast toward the Intermountain West early Saturday. The wave weakens by the time it crosses the Rockies, with a more compact wave taking shape and ejecting toward the Central and Southern Plains areas late Saturday into Sunday. The majority of model guidance suggests precip tied to the disturbance staying to our southwest. LREF guidance shows anywhere from 5 to 15% chance for any precip clipping us, primarily across our far southwest areas. This is in good agreement with the latest NBM run which has trended noticeably drier too as less than 10% PoPs are forecast for that aforementioned area on Sunday. Highs this weekend remain the 40s.

For the upcoming week, will see H5 ridging overspread much of the central CONUS. Expanding thicknesses should lead to a warming trend through Wednesday as highs return to the 50s and low 60s. Dry conditions will prevail through at least late Tuesday. Thereafter, models suggest an H5 wave ejecting from the Rockies toward the Northern Plains. There are still differences apparent with the timing and location of the wave, but for now, NBM depicts our area with a 20 to 40% chance for some rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 446 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

As forecast, an area of stratus at FL025 has built into northeast Nebraska and is expected to affect all three TAF sites through about 14Z this morning before pushing southwest of the sites. Skies will otherwise clear over the course of the day as northerly winds of 5-15 knots continue. VFR conditions are expected after 14Z and will persist through the day.

OAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.