Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain continues through this evening, with locally over 1 possible across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Dry & breezy Tuesday will be followed by a chilly night with lows in the 40s across much of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Unsettled weather returns late week, with the best chance for widespread rain & a few stronger thunderstorms Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A soggy start to the work week as a widespread shield of rain continues to move eastwards across Minnesota & Wisconsin. Most locations should end up with at least 0.5 of rain by tonight, while amounts around 1 & locally higher are more likely across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin where showers & embedded thunderstorms will linger the longest. Severe weather is not a concern given the cool & stable boundary layer, but a few thunderstorms could contain brief heavier downpours. Southeast winds will also remain gusty at 30-35 mph before the surface low moves north of the region tonight & rain ends from west to east.

Tuesday looks much quieter as the trailing cold front moves through the area by around daybreak & drier northwest flow develops behind it. Breezy west/northwest winds pick up during the morning with gusts of 25-30 mph expected before winds speeds begin to diminish during the afternoon as Canadian high pressure enters the region. Afternoon highs will end up around 70 degrees, with prime radiational colling conditions expected overnight under clear skies & calm winds associated with the high pressure. Lows in the 30s are possible in more rural areas of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin while temperatures fall into the 40s elsewhere. Rain chances dont stay away for long though, as the front begins lifting back north Wednesday ahead of another disturbance.

Some scattered rain showers are likely Wednesday afternoon, but more widespread chances for rain come Friday into Saturday as a stronger wave ejects out of the Plains & pulls deeper moisture northwards. Ensemble guidance has trended noticeably wetter with this system, with a widespread soaking rain looking increasingly plausible across at least portions of Minnesota & Wisconsin. The main question will be exactly where the surface boundary sets up, as areas near & north of it could see repeated rounds of rain while locations that make it into the warm sector could see a few stronger thunderstorms Friday afternoon or evening. At this point the heavy rain potential looks like the more likely concern, with the severe threat conditional on how far north the warm front can advance & how much instability develops. Additional disturbances remain possible over the weekend as a stronger upper-level system approaches from the west, so the active & occasionally wet pattern will likely continue through the end of the seven-day period. Temperatures remain fairly seasonable through the week with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 106 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

IFR cigs are in place along and north of I-94 in MN, with MVFR cigs across WI into east central MN. Pockets of fog have also developed following the clearing of the cigs across portions of western MN. Winds will shift west and increase late, allowing the stratus to scatter out. Some diurnal CU may redevelop later in the morning, especially with the I-94 TAFs. Winds will subside in the afternoon.

KMSP...Clearing is approaching quickly from the west, and while confidence is low, there may be some redevelopment of IFR cigs nearby overnight before winds increase.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA PM. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind NE 5kts. FRI...MVFR chc IFR w/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.