Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Monday and Tuesday.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday night through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

An upper ridge builds over the region through Monday and persists until retreating from the area later in the week in response to an upper low which advances from the far western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. A surface ridge over the interior eastern states builds into the southeastern states through midweek which results in an easterly surface flow setting up over the forecast area on Tuesday. Despite subsidence associated with the upper ridge building into the area, may see isolated showers and storms develop Monday afternoon over southeast Mississippi and southwestern Alabama aided by the sea breeze and a series of weak upper level shortwaves. With subsidence effects becoming more pronounced on Tuesday, anticipate dry conditions to prevail although may see some convective development over extreme southeast Mississippi. A surge in the easterly winds accompanying the surface ridge building into the region looks to lead to isolated to scattered showers and storms developing mainly over the marine area Tuesday night which then moves off to the west on Wednesday. While dry conditions otherwise prevail over land areas Tuesday night and Wednesday, this may bring some isolated convection mainly to coastal Alabama late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Dry conditions follow for Thursday, then as the upper low and an associated inverted surface trof move into the eastern Gulf and adjacent coastal areas will have slight chance pops near the coast on Friday with slight chance to chance pops areawide for Saturday. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s with mostly mid 90s for Tuesday. Heat index values on Monday will be 100-107 with similar values for Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be 90-95, then highs on Thursday through Saturday typically range from around 90 near the coast to the lower 90s further inland. An easterly surface flow for Wednesday through Friday ushers in lower surface dewpoints which keep heat index values limited. While surface dewpoints begin to trend higher on Saturday, high temperatures mostly in the lower 90s will keep heat index values at 95-100. A low risk of rip currents on Monday and Tuesday trends to a high risk for Wednesday and Thursday, with a moderate risk following for Friday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A light diurnal flow pattern sets up today, turning becoming light to moderate easterly flow Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly flow Wednesday through Friday, gradually relaxing into the weekend. 1 foot seas persist through Tuesday before increasing quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed late Tuesday through mid week. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MOB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.