Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Rain chances increase this afternoon and evening, continuing into Sunday. Rain may impact trick-or-treating for some areas, especially west of I-65, with coverage increasing areawide overnight. Most areas can expect around 0.5-1 of rain, though isolated totals of 3-4 are possible.

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through early next week. Surf heights increase to 4-6 feet by Sunday, with minor coastal flooding also possible around the early Sunday morning high tide.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A rather diffuse and complex pattern makes for a challenging Halloweekend forecast. At the surface, broad high pressure over the Northeast maintains an easterly to southeasterly flow across the area, bringing in Atlantic and Gulf moisture, especially along the coast and northwestward into Mississippi. Southwesterly flow persists aloft as the upper ridge shifts east and a weak shortwave trough approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Deep-layer moisture will increase as this shortwave approaches, with PWATs climbing to around 1.7 to 1.9 inches tonight, near the 95th percentile for late October. Rain chances will begin increasing as early as mid to late afternoon, initially favoring areas west of I-65. Southeast Mississippi could see numerous showers and storms develop during the late afternoon and early evening, potentially impacting trick-or-treating plans. Elsewhere, coverage should remain more isolated to scattered through the evening before increasing overnight into Sunday morning. PoPs of 60-70% are forecast areawide by Sunday morning. One concern with this setup is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Opposing easterly low-level and westerly upper-level flow will result in weak mean- layer flow, generally 10 knots or less, so any deeper convection that develops could be slow-moving. Combined with anomalously high PWATs and a deep warm cloud layer, rainfall rates could be quite efficient. Most areas should see around 0.5-1 inch of rain, but isolated totals of 3-4 inches are possible where heavier showers or storms develop. This could lead to localized flooding, especially in urban areas. Confidence in the rainfall distribution remains low given the weak forcing. Latest HREF and REFS guidance continues to show a rather variable rainfall footprint, with isolated heavier bullseyes surrounded by areas receiving considerably less. While some locations could see significant rainfall, others may receive very little.

Rain chances will gradually decrease Sunday afternoon as the disturbance shifts east. Widespread cloud cover and breezy easterly winds will persist, keeping temperatures cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. Shortwave ridging and developing northwesterly flow aloft will then support dry conditions Sunday night through early Tuesday.

The main story heading into midweek will be a larger storm system expected to impact much of the central and eastern CONUS. A northern- stream trough will phase with a subtropical jet streak entering the southern Rockies, with the eventual evolution of the trough having important implications for our area. Depending on how the trough ejects from the central Plains early next week, there is some potential for severe weather across portions of the local area during the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe. A slower, more amplified solution involving a closed-off trough digging toward the Lower Mississippi Valley could promote surface low development farther south, enhancing low-level wind shear across the Southeast. Conversely, a faster and more progressive solution would keep the strongest dynamics farther north and away from the better instability, limiting the local severe threat. Model guidance remains inconsistent regarding the timing, strength, and placement of these features, so confidence remains low at this range. This is something we will continue to monitor over the coming days.

A cold front will eventually move through the area, bringing a cooler and drier air mass for the remainder of the week. Overnight lows should fall well into the 40s late next week into next weekend, bringing a noticeable cooldown to the region.

A High Risk of rip currents is expected at all area beaches through at least Tuesday. In addition, surf heights are forecast to increase to around 4 to 6 feet by Sunday, and a High Surf Advisory will likely be needed for Sunday into Sunday night. Minor coastal flooding will also be possible around the early Sunday morning high tide. Trends will be monitored for a possible Coastal Flood Advisory. JGC/98

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VFR flight category continues across the region through tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible throughout the day and tonight, mainly west of the I-65 corridor. This may result in temporary reductions in flight category. Winds remain out of the east at 5 to 10 knots during the day, relaxing to near 5 knots at night. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots can't be ruled out near the coast this afternoon. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A moderate easterly to northeasterly flow will continue through this morning. Winds will gradually increase this afternoon, becoming strong by tonight. Moderate to strong easterly flow is expected to continue through Tuesday, with winds gradually decreasing and turning onshore by mid-week. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect from 8pm tonight through 8pm Monday. Seas will build to 5-7 feet by Sunday and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MOB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675.