Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Heat index values of 100-107 are expected Tuesday.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday night through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

An upper ridge over the region retreats from the area late this week and into Saturday as an upper low/trof forms over the far western Atlantic and advances into the northeast Gulf. A surface ridge builds into the southeastern states through midweek, setting up an easterly surface flow which ushers drier air into the forecast area. Isolated showers and storms will be possible over the coastal counties Tuesday afternoon with the seabreeze, but otherwise subsidence associated with the upper ridge will suppress convective development. The easterly surface flow with the building surface ridge strengthens mainly over the marine area Tuesday night into Wednesday, and isolated to scattered convection develops in response over the marine area which may affect mainly coastal portions of Alabama. Dry conditions otherwise prevail through Friday, then slight chance to chance pops return to the forecast on Saturday as the upper low progresses into the northeastern Gulf along with a modest surface reflection trof and improving deep layer moisture. Chance to likely pops follow for Sunday as the upper low looks to slowly progress a bit further across the Gulf along with deep layer moisture continuing to increase.

A low risk of rip currents on Tuesday is expected to quickly increase to a High Risk for Wednesday and Thursday, then a moderate risk follows for Friday. As noted by the previous shift, will need to monitor surf heights which are expected to increase to 4-5 feet on Wednesday and Thursday. Should these increase further, then a High Surf Advisory would likely become necessary for these days. Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Tuesday, but otherwise a combination of somewhat cooler daytime highs and/or lower surface dewpoints will limit heat index values. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR flight category will prevail across the region through the day today and tonight. An isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out near the coast during the afternoon. Winds will be light out of the north less than 5 knots, becoming easterly during the day around 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow becomes established today, becoming strong Wednesday into Thursday. Winds relax to light to occasionally moderate easterlies to end the week. 1 foot seas today increase quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the marine waters late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MOB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.