Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- High temperatures in the 90s and humid conditions will maintain hot and humid conditions through at least mid-week. Additional Heat Advisories will be likely.

- Increasing moisture late week and into the weekend will lead to higher coverage of showers and storms; Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows isolated to widely scattered generally south-southeast moving showers and lighting storms along, as well as north of I-4. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations shows partly to mostly cloudy skies. Analysis charts show low pressure (1010mb) over the southwest Atlantic with a stationary boundary that extends from the low across the southwest Atlantic and northern Florida. Current temperatures are in the mid 80s to low 90s with dew points in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, in addition to heat index values generally up to 105-112F degrees. The highest heat index values are across northern ECFL where a Heat Advisory is in effect until 8PM.

Scattered to numerous generally southeast moving showers (60-70% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon and evening as collisions occur between west- southwest flow, the east coast sea breeze, and outflow from previous showers/lightning storms. Rain chances gradually reduce after 7pm. The potential exists for isolated strong storms. The main hazards will be frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-3" with a 1 in 10 chance in excess of 3" up to 4-5"). WSW winds at 5-10mph are expected this afternoon with winds backing onshore into this evening. Lows in the mid 70s to near 80F degrees are forecast.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Rain chances will trend lower tomorrow (40-60%) and especially on Wednesday with drier air due to increasing offshore flow. However, a similar forecast to today is expected on Tuesday as the aforementioned stationary boundary sags southwards coupled with PWATs between 2.0-2.4." Rain chances decrease further on Wednesday with isolated to scattered showers (20-40% chance) forecast (variable storm motions) to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. The main hazards will be frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-3" with a 1 in 10 chance in excess of 3" up to 4-5" on Tuesday and 1-2" with a 1 in 10 chance in excess of 2" up to 3" on Wednesday). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast with heat index values up to 105-112F degrees (highest across N ECFL on Tuesday and across all of ECFL on Wednesday). Above normal (1-4F+) lows in the mid 70s to around 80F degrees are forecast. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is expected with portions of Lake county in an Extreme Heat Risk. This level of heat affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Remember to practice heat safety such as wearing light clothing, shifting outdoor work away from the hours of 10AM-4PM, drink plenty of fluids, and take frequent breaks from the heat.

Thursday-Sunday... Rain chances increase late week and remain high through at least Saturday as a stationary boundary stalls over the southern US. The potential exists for isolated strong to marginally severe storms Thursday-Saturday. However, the trends with the NBM have been a lowering in the POPs in the extended forecast and MOS data suggests that the probability of precipitation are a little too high. Scattered to widespread showers (50-90% highest across N ECFL) and lightning storms are forecast on Thursday with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms forecast Friday, as well as Saturday with decreasing rain chances on Sunday. There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (5-14% risk) for much of ECFL on Thursday and Friday. The heat decreases with the higher rain chances with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected outside of showers and lightning storms. Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast this evening. The potential exists for isolated lightning storms capable of wind gusts in excess of 34kts. SW winds at 5-15kts are expected with seas to 1-2ft nearshore (0-60nm) and up to 3ft offshore.

Tuesday-Friday (previous forecast discussion)... A low pressure system moves offshore from the Northeast US mid-week which will tighten the pressure gradient locally. SW flow is expected to increase to 15-20 kts Tuesday night through Thursday night. Winds have the potential to reach 20-25 kts briefly Wednesday night well offshore. Seas are forecast to build to 2-4 ft with up to 5 ft forecast north of Sebastian Inlet Wednesday night. Boating conditions improve into Friday and the weekend as SW flow diminishes and seas return to 1-3 ft. However, an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage is forecast through the period with activity moving offshore.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 701 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Quiet conds are favored at the terminals overnight and through midday on Tuesday, with shower chances < 20%. On Tuesday afternoon, another round of SCT storms is forecast with coverage 30-50%. Have added VCTS for now after 18-19Z, but some PROB30/TEMPO lines may be required in later updates. Light offshore flow continues to prevail with winds VRB to SW through the period, up to 12 KT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MLB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.