Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extended the Small Craft Advisory across the near shore coastal waters a few hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cooler post-frontal airmass and northeast flow will lead to a drop in temperatures over the weekend.

2) Next chance of appreciable rain comes mid to late next week with a low pressure system moving out of the Deep South.

Marine: Northeasterly winds and seas will gradually subside through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will continue to build in from the north through the weekend bringing northeast flow and cooler but seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Along the Outer Banks, highs may struggle to reach the mid-60s. Away from bodies of water, lows should fall into the 40s tonight thanks to a drier airmass and lighter winds. High pressure won't be directly overhead, though, and there will be a lot of high clouds streaming through, which should prevent lows from getting as low as they otherwise could.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An amplified upper level trough is forecast to move into the Central U.S. early next week, but that is where confidence begins to drop. By the middle to latter half of next week, medium range guidance continues to vary drastically with the evolution of the upper trough as it shifts towards the Eastern U.S. Most guidance point towards at least a piece of the upper trough getting cutoff from the flow, but where that cutoff occurs, and if it occurs at all, is a big question mark. Meanwhile, for comparison, AI guidance suggests a more progressive and less amplified evolution of the trough as it reaches the East Coast, with less cutoff potential.

While the upper level differences equate to much different sensible weather outcomes, the general theme appears to a pattern that favors a period of southerly flow with milder temperatures, increasing moisture, and the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The forecast is very much subject to change during this timeframe, though, so stay tuned.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with sct-bkn mid and high clouds. NE winds will diminish tonight but light winds and a sufficiently dry airmass is expected to preclude fog development. NE winds continue Sunday but won't be quite as gusty.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): The northeast flow across the area this weekend will transition to an easterly flow as we move into early next week. Increasing moisture within this flow appears supportive of low CIGs and the potential for BR/FG development (not unlike what was experienced the past few days locally). Some SHRA will be possible as well, especially for coastal terminals (KEWN, KMRH). Of note, confidence is lower regarding the potential for low CIGs and SHRA during this time, but it's worth mentioning the potential.

MARINE

High pressure will continue to build into the region into early next week bringing NE winds across the waters. Winds currently around 15-20 kt. Gusts to around 25-30 kt are mainly confined to the coastal waters closer south of Cape Hatteras, especially near the Gulf Stream. Seas are currently around 5-7 ft for the nearshore waters and up to around 8 ft across the offshore waters.

Winds diminish to around 10-20 kt overnight into Sunday, highest across of Onslow Bay where gusts up to 25 kt may continue. Seas are a foot or so higher than wave guidance across the nearshore waters and have extended the SCA a few hours to allow for a slower subsidence. Seas will be around 3-5 ft across the nearshore coastal waters Sunday into Monday, though continue around 5-7 ft across the outer coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): Northeast flow is expected to last through at least Tuesday, along with elevated seas. By the middle of next week, the pattern is forecast to begin changing, and this should eventually least to an east to southeast flow developing for a change. Guidance is mixed on whether or not a period of stronger east to southeast winds will develop or not mid next week. For now the forecast reflects sub-25kt winds mid to late next week, but the forecast is subject to change, so stay tuned.

MHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.