Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dropped the Small Craft Advisory for the sounds and rivers. Made minor adjustments to the end times of the SCA for the near shore coastal waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through mid week with a warming trend late in the work week.

2) Unsettled weather returns over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge centered over the Southeast CONUS and sfc high pressure ridging in from the north will keep dry conditions across ENC through much of the work week. However, upper low retrograding to the SSW across the offshore waters Thursday into Friday may bring a few showers near the Gulf Stream, but dry conditions expected to persist across land areas. NE winds will continue through mid week bringing seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity levels through, then will see gradually warming and increasing dewpoints Thursday into Friday as high pressure weakens and slides offshore allowing low level flow to veer to southerly ahead of an approaching cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak cold front will drop south into the area Saturday and briefly stall before lifting back north as a cold front on Sunday. Sfc convergence and lowering heights aloft as shortwave energy rides over the upper ridge along with increasing moisture will allow for a better chance of showers and thuderstorms across the area over the weekend and into early next week, especially through peak heating when instability is greatest.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure will ridge into the area from the north through the TAF period bringing pred VFR conditions. NE winds will prevail with gusts to around 15-20 kt possible mid morning through the afternoon when deeper mixing ensues. Sufficent mixing and a dry airmass will preclude fog development this morning, but light/calm winds Tuesday night could allow for patchy shallow fog development inland.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): High pressure builds in through the middle of the week with predominantly VFR and dry conditions expected. A cold front is progged to push south into the area over the weekend bringing increased chances of precip.

MARINE

Current buoy obs show NE winds generally around 15-20 kt with higher gusts to around 25-30 kt over the offshore waters near the Gulf Stream, while seas are around 4-6 ft. Winds are just beginning to diminish and gusts have dropped below SCA criteria for the sounds and river and have cancelled the SCA for these zones. Seas have not built as high as expected but are seeing seas up to 6 ft in most zones and will continue the SCA for the near shore coastal waters. However, did shorten the end times as guidance has seas dropping below criteria around mid day today for all zones except the central waters where guidance keeps seas up to 6 ft into Wednesday.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): NE winds around 15 kt or less continues on Wednesday, then will become light and veer to SE then S on Thursday into Friday as the high to the north weakens. A cold front is expected to drop into the area Saturday and briefly stall bringing light and variable winds across the waters. Lingering 6 ft seas across the central waters are expected to drop below SCA criteria by late Wednesday, if not sooner. Seas around 3-5 ft continues Thursday, then subsides to 2-4 ft Friday into Satuday.

MHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ156-158.