Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Dangerous, oppressive heat and humidity continues through Tuesday. Heat indices each day are forecast to reach at least 105 degrees if not exceed 110 degrees. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory is in effect now through 8 PM Tuesday.

- A Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) Risk of severe weather remains for portions of the Mid-South this evening into the early overnight hours. The main concerns are damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

- Lower humidity and seasonal temperatures will arrive by midweek, providing some relief from the extreme heat.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Oppressive heat and humidity has returned to the Mid-South with many locations already reporting heat index values approaching or exceeding 105 degrees. Temperatures will continue to warm into the afternoon, so exercise caution if you must be outside for prolonged periods and drink plenty of water. Based on the latest guidance and trends, the Extreme Heat Warning was expanded slightly in portions of West TN. Outside of the heat today, all eyes will turn north as a MCV will develop later today into tonight across the Ohio River Valley. CAM guidance has remained largely spread with this event, but the general consensus does keep the strongest storms to our north and east as the system surges to the south. However, if the complex were to push into our area or develop further west, most guidance does show a fairly robust environment with well over 3,500 J/kg of SBCAPE and fairly healthy lapse rates. A limiting factor into the late evening to overnight hours will be CIN and developing surface inversion, which would again suggest that the MCV should be decaying as it reaches our area. Nonetheless, damaging winds will be the primary concern, with periods of heavy rainfall if the complex pushes through. Confidence remains very low, but there is enough uncertainty that it is worth keeping an eye on into the evening and overnight hours.

Any lingering shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly move out by Monday morning, with temperatures surging and an even warmer and humid airmass remaining in place. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s on Monday and Tuesday, but some locations may reach 100 degrees especially on Tuesday. Further expansion of the Extreme Heat Warning may be needed, but adjustments will be made in later forecast packages if necessary.

By Wednesday, an upper-level trough will continue to develop across the northeast U.S. with a backdoor frontal boundary easing the oppressive heat and humidity across our area. As such, some heat products may still be needed across the Delta regions before the boundary arrives, but most of the Mid-South will likely fall back to closer to summer-time normal values with highs in the low 90s. This upper-level, northwesterly flow will allow for daily thunderstorm chances to return to the Mid-South and aid in keeping highs in the low 90s to end the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No significant aviation weather concerns are foreseen for Midsouth TAF sites tonight. However, a corridor favorable for TSRA will extend from southern IL through western KY into middle TN this evening and overnight. The bulk of short term guidance keeps this TSRA east of MKL, but there is consensus on the passage of an outflow boundary through MKL around sunrise. Whether this boundary makes it to MEM is questionable. In any case, impacts from a slowing outflow boundary should be minimal - if no additional TSRA develops along the boundary. At this time, that doesn't appear likely. But the MKL TAF will continue the PROB30 for TSRA, given that some of the CAM guidance depicts TSRA along the TN River toward 10Z.

Strong upper level ridging will limit TSRA potential Monday afternoon, as VFR and light westerly winds prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ002>006-009-013>017- 021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004- 019>021-048>052-088-089.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ022-053>055-090>092.