Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Patchy fog will develop over portions of southeast New Mexico and West Texas early this morning.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may clip portions of southeast New Mexico late Sunday night. A storm or two may be strong to marginally severe, capable of producing strong and gusty winds.

- Increasing southerly winds shifting to westerly Monday, with strong westerly winds (40-50 mph, gusts 65 mph) over the Guadalupes/Delawares. A High Wind Watch is in effect.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 205 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Current observations show extensive low clouds across the area once again. Most visibilities are good though fog is becoming more dense in the northwestern Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico. It is still too sparse to issue a Dense Fog Advisory but will continue to monitor. The low clouds will hang in for much if not all of the day, keeping temperatures near normal. An approaching trough will cause isolated convection to form in SE NM where one or two storms could become severe, though the severe threat will be low.

Winds veer from a more westerly direction tonight ahead of the trough, pushing moisture to the east and allowing for clearing skies. Winds will increase, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Watch remains in effect for Monday. Breezy to windy conditions are expected in the lower elevations and downsloping will push temps back up above normal.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The trough pushes east on Tuesday sending a weak cold front into the CWA. Temperatures drop back down only to near normal where they will continue through the end of the week. The upper pattern is zonal and any systems moving across the country will be weak and fast moving moving from west to east. The lack of any systems moving down out of Canada prevents any strong cold air intrusion for our forecast period.

Hennig

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS being observed at almost all TAF sites this morning. BLO airport mins expected at least intermittently at HOB through 15Z before some improvement. Conditions improve 15-18Z with some reaching VFR. MAF/HOB likely to stay below VFR through the TAF period.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.