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000 FXUS64 KMAF 301712 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1212 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1209 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- Widespread showers/storms expected across the area today, moving east this afternoon.
- Highest chance (70% or greater) of showers/storms and flash flooding will be in the northern and eastern Permian Basin.
- Drier weather this weekend, followed by windy conditions early next week, accompanied by a return to cooler temperatures.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Current radar shows widespread showers across the area this morning. Reports show areas farther from the radar, near the Guadalupe and Davis mountains and Big Bend, are also getting rainfall but the radar beam is overshooting the echoes. All observation points in the West Texas Mesonet in our CWA have recorded some precipitation in the past 24 hours with many locations getting between one quarter and three quarters of an inch. A few locations have gotten over an inch. Rain will continue early this morning before an approaching upper level trough pushes it to the eastern basin by late morning and mostly out of the area by late this afternoon. There will be a few remaining scattered showers in the afternoon but most of the rain will have fallen. Saturday will be dry.
There will be little diurnal variation with temperatures today due to abundant cloud cover. Lows this morning will be close to what is currently observed with highs less than 10 degrees higher. Decreasing clouds lets Saturday warm up a bit more. The weather for Halloween will be pleasant for trick or treating.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Southerly flow advects in warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday before a cold front moves through Monday night bringing in cooler temperatures on Tuesday. The upper trough supporting the front will be moving in from the Pacific Ocean and thus lacking cold air. Therefore highs behind the front drop down but only to near climatological norms. The remainder of the extended forecast is dry with highs in the 70s.
Hennig
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
IFR or worse continues for most of the terminals with minor improvements possible this afternoon. Conditions will again deteriorate after sunset back to IFR/LIFR due to low cigs and visibilities potentially <1SM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Big Spring | 61 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 90% | 50% | 10% | 0% |
| Carlsbad | 69 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Dryden | 70 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 30% | 20% | 0% | 10% |
| Fort Stockton | 71 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Guadalupe Pass | 64 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 20% | 40% | 10% | 0% |
| Hobbs | 63 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 60% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Marfa | 69 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Midland Intl Airport | 62 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 70% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Odessa | 63 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 60% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Wink | 68 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 50% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews- Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin- Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson- Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
NM...Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.
SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...29