Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Despite a gradual cooling trend, temperatures remain above normal through the week. A more notable cool down is possible this weekend in addition to more widespread rain chances.

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible over the higher terrain each afternoon. Storm chances also increase over portions of SE NM this week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Current mesoanalysis depicts an upper-level trough moving across the Northern Plains, with the upper-level ridge centered over the southeastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a disturbance moving along the western periphery of the ridge has allowed scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over portions of southeast New Mexico. These showers and storms will gradually wane and/or move beyond our area as the morning progresses. Later today, additional showers and storms will develop thanks to surface troughing and pulses in the flow aloft. Coverage will be a bit better than yesterday's, especially for the western half of our forecast area. Chances in southeast New Mexico and in/near the higher terrain south and west of the Pecos River range between 30-60%. Chances tend to drop somewhat sharply farther east, but a few isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to make their way into western portions of the Permian Basin. Some storms may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. Highs this afternoon top out in the mid-to-upper 90s for most locations again, with temperatures just above 100 degrees mainly in and near the river valleys.

Similar to this morning, showers and storms will continue overnight before gradually waning early Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, convective development looks to shift a bit farther to the west, such that the best chances (20-50%) will be found from roughly the Davis Mountains north towards the Guadalupes and Eddy County. Highs Wednesday tick down relative to Tuesday's, but generally remain in the mid-to-upper 90s. Lows Wednesday morning once again only fall into the low-to-mid 70s for most. Nevertheless, we are still monitoring a cooling trend late this week and into next week. See the Long Term Discussion for more details on that and the potential for more widespread rain chances.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Not much has changed since the previous two forecast packages. The upper-level ridge axis remains displaced over the southeastern CONUS, with our area under its western fringes. Model guidance suggests that an upper trough will slowly dig south along the California coast before moving east through the rest of the week. As it does so, the aforementioned upper ridge will weaken farther east. This shall induce a gradual cooling trend of about a degree each day this week. Increased moisture in addition to upslope flow and minor perturbations in the flow yields daily shower/storm chances (10-40%) this week across the western higher terrain and southeast New Mexico.

This weekend into early next week, long-range ensemble guidance depicts a shortwave trough moving in from the west. If this were to verify, lower heights would yield cooler temperatures and an increase in shower/storm chances (NBM currently shows 20-60% probabilities) farther east. However, there continues to be large spread among the temperature and precipitation fields. This is due to model disagreement on placement of the aforementioned trough and associated cold front. The positioning of these features determine whether our area experiences warmer/drier or cooler/wetter conditions. An outcome that maintains high uncertainty and we will continue to monitor trends, adjusting the forecast as new data warrants it. Greening

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms generally remain north and west of HOB and CNM for the remainder of the morning as they gradually diminish. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon and evening. PROB30s at CNM, HOB, FST, and PEQ for -TSRA may be necessary by the next TAF update if confidence continues to increase. Southeasterly to southerly winds remain breezy for most sites through the period (generally in the 10-15 kt sustained range), with generally lighter winds at CNM and PEQ.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.