Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of east, central and southern Arkansas

- Isolated showers & t'storms possible in central Arkansas Tuesday

- Drier conditions to build in through the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Generally very similar conditions persist under the stout H500 ridge that has dominated the region through the last several weeks. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of Arkansas except for the Ozarks Tuesday. Well above normal temperatures and humid conditions will have afternoon Apparent Ts peaking just under 110 this afternoon. Winds remain generally light out of the SSW with a couple of gusts between 15-20 mph possible along the AR/MO border Tuesday afternoon. A lazy CU field will begin to develop around 18z or so. As this field matures an isolated to a few showers and t'storms could develop to the south of the I-30/57 corridor. Lack of shear will keep any development rather unorganized and quick in nature. PWATs over 2 inches across the state would be supportive of high rain rates in any development. A few CAM runs have a very subtle shortwave attempting to form across central MO. If this can materialize and storms can form north of I-40 in east AR small pockets of 20-25 kts of bulk shear could support a bit more organized storm mode in NE AR. This would be very conditional and require perfect timing on both the shortwave and afternoon convection arriving at the same time. Any activity will diminish in intensity and coverage with loss of peak heating. Relatively clear skies will return to the overnight period.

Looking later into the week heat headlines will likely need to be extended through several more days as the ridge over central CONUS remains planted over the region. On Wednesday, the best chances for afternoon shower and t'storm activity will flip to the north side of the I-30/57 corridor with coverage decreasing after peak diurnal heating. Drier air begins to move into the region Thursday and likely shuts off rain chances until late in the weekend. Any recovery of fuels and soil moisture from last week's rain will quickly eroded as Min RHs start to drop into the low 30th percentile with the drier air.

Mid to long range guidance is hinting at a more active pattern starting to work its way into the region late in the weekend to next week. A return to near normal temperatures could be on deck to provide a much needed break from the oppressive heat. Additionally, a shot of moisture out of the Gulf is possible early next week. If these arrive in phase widespread meaningful rainfall will be possible across the state.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions to persist through the period. Clear skies will last through the morning before lazy afternoon CU begins to build across the state. Eventually a couple of showers could develop in south central to eastern AR but confidence in coverage is not high enough to mention at any terminal. Winds will remain generally light out of the SSW with a couple of gusts between 15-20 mph possible in northern terminals tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017- 024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130-137-138- 140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.