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000 FXUS64 KLZK 310519 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1219 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this weekend as several upper level impulses move through.
- Rain amounts are not expected to be excessive this weekends.
- A much stronger system is set to arrive Tuesday through early Wednesday showers and thunderstorms likely.
- The chances of severe weather appear minimal low at this time with the system next week but can not be ruled out entirely.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
No appreciable changes will be made to the current forecast package with pattern continuing to feature a somewhat amplified upper flow. Guidance continues to show broad ridging over the majority of the nation with upper troughing / upper low now making its way on shore over the Pacific Northwest. This feature will become a major player in in the forecast early next week. Satellite imagery continues to show a significant increase in moisture as southwest flow increases. Guidance remains steadfast in moving a couple of weak upper level impulses moving through and bring at least some showers and isolated thunderstorms to the state.
The first impulse is slated to move across tonight and early Saturday with the second one right on its heels keeping precip chances in the forecast through the weekend. The weekend will not be a complete washout by any stretch with QPF in the quarter to half inch range.
Weak ridging returns for Sunday night and Monday although a stray shower can not be ruled out. Attention will then turn to the previously mentioned west coast trough/upper low that will have moved from its current position and into the northern and central plains by the end of Monday.
Moisture levels will be increasing substantially as the parent low moves into the upper midwest Monday night into Tuesday. The surface cold front will be located over far east Oklahoma early Tuesday with a secondary area of low pressure developing along the boundary over far SW MO/far NW AR.
Long range models are in decent enough agreement with bringing the cold front through the FA Tuesday and Tuesday night with upper support keeping precipitation chances in the forecast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Rain will likely be in the region for election day but flooding is not a major concern with the speed of the system and antecedent conditions but several inches of rain can not be ruled out in spots and would actually be welcomed.
Severe weather at this time does not appear widespread with upper flow largely parallel to the system and stability looking limited. Still, a wary eye will remain on this system as it evolves over the next few days.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Moisture levels will continue to increase as southwest flow aloft gets established. Widespread VFR conditions are expected initially before MVFR conditions start to develop later in the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will become common as the period progresses, especially towards the conclusion of this TAF cycle. Surface winds will be predominately out of the southeast but average under 10 knots.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Batesville AR | 77 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 20% | 70% | 50% | 10% |
| Camden AR | 73 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 40% | 50% | 20% | 0% |
| Harrison AR | 72 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 30% | 40% | 20% | 0% |
| Hot Springs AR | 72 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 40% | 50% | 20% | 0% |
| Little Rock AR | 75 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 30% | 60% | 30% | 0% |
| Monticello AR | 75 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 30% | 60% | 60% | 0% |
| Mount Ida AR | 71 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 60% | 60% | 10% | 0% |
| Mountain Home AR | 73 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 20% | 70% | 30% | 10% |
| Newport AR | 78 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 10% | 60% | 50% | 10% |
| Pine Bluff AR | 74 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 30% | 60% | 40% | 0% |
| Russellville AR | 73 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 40% | 60% | 30% | 0% |
| Searcy AR | 77 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 20% | 60% | 40% | 10% |
| Stuttgart AR | 77 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 20% | 60% | 50% | 0% |
LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...99