Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Scattered afternoon showers/storms possible over Cntrl/S/SE Arkansas today

- Heat Advisories in effect for much of Arkansas Monday & Tuesday

- Expansive upper ridge to build back over Arkansas through Saturday

- Anomalously hot and dry conditions anticipated through Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Today, few to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible across mainly Cntrl/S/SE AR associated with abundant low- level moisture coupled with peak diurnal heating. The main thunderstorm hazard with any of the stronger convection would be damaging straight-line winds. Otherwise, dry and hot conds can be expected across the state. Highs today and Tuesday should range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Factoring in the humid airmass in place and heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 are expected each afternoon across a large part of the state. Given this, a Heat Advisory is in effect across all but NW and N-Cntrl AR through at least Tuesday evening.

Heading through middle-to-late part of this week, a stout upper ridge will become re-established across the Srn CONUS. During this time, the center of high pressure will meander about the region between features to the W and E of the ridge axis. Underneath the ridge, highs will range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees each day. Rain chances will remain minimal, or spotty at best, with heat index values topping out between 95 and 110.

As we progress through middle part of September it becomes increasingly difficult to reach 100 degrees due to decreasing overhead sun angle, expected increase in average precip, and decreasing amount of daylight with each passing day. To oppose these natural cooling expectations one would expect, a strengthening and amplifying ridge on the order of ~597-600 decameters will remain in place across the region. For those curious about climatological average temps for this time of year, Little Rock - Average Low 64, Average High 86; Pine Bluff - Average Low 64, Average High 87; Harrison - Average Low 59, Average High 82. In summary, average highs and lows are expected to range from 10-15 degrees above climatological average through Saturday.

While Sunday is pretty far out in the long term, there are some indications that the ridge could shift Ewrd as an upper trough moves into the nations mid-section. If this happens, rain chances could increase locally while simultaneously lowering temps to end the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions to persist through the period. Clear skies will last through the morning before lazy afternoon CU begins to build across the state. Eventually a couple of showers could develop in south central to eastern AR but confidence in coverage is not high enough to mention at any terminal. Winds will remain generally light out of the SSW with a couple of gusts between 15-20 mph possible in northern terminals tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017- 024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130-137-138- 140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.