Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures will undergo a slow cooling trend through the end of the week.

- A wet pattern may emerge this weekend into early next week with much cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Much more widespread convective activity is expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS will continue to edge eastward allowing for an increase in mid- level moisture overhead. Flow aloft will therefore veer to the southwest with possibly a weak short wave trough moving through New Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. However, large scale ascent looks to be fairly weak with this weak southwest flow. Much of the lift will come from the lower levels of the atmosphere as a surface pressure trough slides eastward into the area from New Mexico. Later in the afternoon, a cold front sliding southward through the Texas Panhandle will further increase the low level ascent. Convective initiation is expected along a line from southwest to northeast on the caprock within a rich low level theta-e field. Warm temperatures in the mid-90s will again bring a deep boundary layer and relatively high cloud bases. Increased moisture and cooler mid-level temperatures will garner stronger available instability. Deeply mixed layer instability will be on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Weak shear will prevent storms from becoming organized but will still likely be able to potentially produce strong to severe wind gusts. The other main threat from storms will be the potential for heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding. Mixing ratio and precipitable water values will surge close to the 99th percentile. The strong available moisture and weak shear will allow any storms that develop to possibly dump significant rainfall over localized areas. Low level jet winds will ramp up Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning around 40-45kt. Rain showers with some thunder will therefore continue through the overnight hours.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS will begin to shift back westward beginning on Wednesday. This will effectively return us to convective chances closer to the Texas/New Mexico state line on Wednesday and Thursday. By late in the week, the retreating ridge will significantly weaken with increasing troughing over the southwestern CONUS. A number of short wave troughs within the southwest flow may bring periodic rain chances this weekend through early next week. The increased chances of rainfall and a possible cold front this weekend will bring much lower temperatures back to more seasonal values.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Isolated storms will attempt to make there way into PVW early this morning, but confidence remains too low for a TAF mention.

LUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.