Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Impactful heat conditions will persist well into the new week. Mid week will be the most intense days with heat indices 110-115 degrees.

- Rain chances will remain very low through Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms should return Thursday through Saturday as the upper ridge weakens and a frontal boundary settles toward the northern Gulf Coast.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Strong heating each day in the short term with little relief. The extreme heat watch that is currently on the table will likely become a warning for Tuesday. The next real chance of any sh/ts activity will be late in the day Wed. Large scale(synoptic) pattern is setting up now with a deep upper trough over the east coast and a large amplitude stacked high over the western half of the continent. This flow will set our area in line with the NW flow where these two systems meet(stalled frontal axis or "ring of fire" as most call it). This will, at first, be farther east of the area until late Wed when this demarked axis moves over our area and brings MCS style features SEward into the area by late in the day Wed. At the moment, this would be the earliest we would see something regarding numbers of storms increase at least over coastal Miss. Thu will see these sh/ts reach farther westward into the area during the heating of the day. By the time these storms move in and/or develop will be too late to keep temps from reaching their warmest levels of the day, so heat issues may continue at least through Wed. We will need to reassess for Thu since there could be more cloud cover around.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Going into Friday models are still trying to advertise some afternoon convection along the stalled surface front over our region. Aloft, the East Coast trough will remain in place with a strong 601dam H5 ridge centered close to the four corners. A weak shortwave ridge does appear on the GFS over the region, which could help suppress diurnally driven convection on Friday, but the ECM's QPF signal is there favoring surface convergence a bit more and it appears to be the wetter solution at this point.

Saturday and Sunday eyes focus to the northwest as an upper level trough begins to amplify over the Mid Mississippi River Valley, which will bring higher rain chances back into the region, especially Sunday. Given the strong northwest/northerly flow there could be a late season MCS or two with strong gusty winds being possible along with some localized flash flooding possible given the average QPF values of 2 to 3 inches during the long term period.

As for temperatures, expect Friday to be slightly warmer, especially if the GFS is correct with the shortwave ridge aloft and limited afternoon convection. That said, some relief will come in the way of showers and storms, especially on Sunday where the region barely touches the 90s given the increase in clouds and QPF. (Frye)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Generally light southwesterly winds and VFR conditions through the cycle. Cannot rule out a rogue shower, but the limited coverage is enough to keep any mention out of the forecast for now. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

High pressure will gradually shift southward, establishing a predominantly westerly flow regime through the middle of the workweek. There will be the usual diurnal increase in winds over the eastern waters where winds approach and sometimes slightly exceed 15 knots during the evening and part of the overnight hours before diminishing.

LIX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056-071-091-093>097.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ057- 058-064-070-076>087-089-090-092-098>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>085.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.