Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is likely overnight into Saturday morning across portions of western, southwest and north central Nebraska

- Scattered rain showers possible tonight and through the day Saturday

- Another system arrives late Sunday into Tuesday bringing a chance of widespread precipitation

- Strong winds Monday and Tuesday, especially across western Nebraska

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 425 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The main concern in the short term will be fog potential and the chance for precipitation the remainder of this afternoon through Saturday. There will be a weak boundary that continues to lift northward this afternoon into portions of north central Nebraska extending back into southwest Nebraska, providing weak mid level lift to the area. For locations generally from O'Neill to Thedford to Hayes Center there will be weak instability with MUCAPE values ranging from mostly 500 J/kg across that area, with the exception of far north central Nebraska, generally Holt County northward where CAPE values will be nearing 1000 J/kg. The outlined area will have the greatest potential to see an isolated thunderstorms, along with rain showers into the evening hours. For areas west, generally expect stratus to continue with a potential for drizzle in some locations, but not widespread during the remainder of the afternoon/evening hours.

As for the fog potential tonight, patchy fog looks likely and there is the potential for fog to become more widespread in the overnight hours across portions of western, southwest and north central Nebraska again tonight. Probabilities of widespread dense fog with visibilities less than a 1/4 mile generally around 60 percent for portions of western, southwest and north central Nebraska. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the area starting late tonight through Saturday morning for southwest into portions of central Nebraska and the Sandhills.

For Saturday there will be a chance of scattered rain showers as a SW trof lifts into the area. There will be a chance of scattered chances throughout the day, with the greater potential for rain showers generally HWY 61 and east with QPF amounts light most of the day with less than 0.05" expected through 00z Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 425 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Another system will move in early next week as a long way trof moves into the Central Plains. Chances for precipitation will increase Monday and Tuesday. As the low tracks across the area will also see winds increase with wind speeds around 25 to 35 mph for Monday and Tuesday and wind gusts of 50 mph. Will need to monitor as they system gets closer to see if any headlines for high winds will be needed. As for temperatures through the week, expect highs in the 50s Tuesday through Thursday. After Tuesday expect drier conditions through Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Stratus remains across most of western and north central Nebraska tonight, with areas of fog across the region. This is largely leading to MVFR and IFR conditions, though localized LIFR conditions are also observed. As fog spreads overnight, expecting mostly IFR to LIFR conditions, as ceilings are not expected to improve. Shortly after daybreak, winds are expected to increase out of the south, which should help erode the fog, however, the low stratus is expected to remain in place across most of the region. Winds become gusty by late morning, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots across most of the region. May begin to see some locations improve to MVFR conditions through the afternoon, though a return to IFR conditions is expected by the evening as ceilings lower once again.

LBF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ035>038-056>059-069>071.