Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding for Atlantic beachfront locations and St. Johns River Basin

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at local beaches

- Isolated Thunderstorm Activity Returns Mid to Late Week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Moderate rip current risk at Atlantic beaches

- Minor flooding will continue along the St. Johns River Basin during times of high tide through this evening

Dry west to northwest steering flow this morning becomes southwest this afternoon into tonight which will lead to a slight increase in moisture with PWATs reaching into the 1.2 to 1.5 inch range across NE FL, but remaining around 1 inch across SE GA. This combined with diurnal heating and inland moving sea breezes across inland NE FL may trigger a brief late day shower along the I-75 corridor near GNV/OCF but otherwise expect dry conditions to continue under mostly clear to partly sunny skies. Max temps will rebound to above normal levels with highs in the upper 80s/near 90F inland and lower/middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast behind the East Coast sea breeze. Not as cool tonight with lows in the lower 60s inland SE GA and mid/upper 60s inland NE FL and around 70F along the Atlantic Coast. A slight increase in low level moisture allowing for some shallow, patchy dense fog to develop around sunrise across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Wednesday night):

- Moderating temperatures, and slowly increasing moisture this period

Surface high pressure will be centered to the northeast of the region this period, yielding a warm and moist onshore flow. As moisture increases, precipitation chances will slowly increase from Tuesday into Wednesday from south to north.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period (Thursday through Sunday):

- Potential for strong storms with heavy rainfall increases this period

High pressure will remain centered to the northeast through Friday continuing the moist onshore flow, with precipitation chances from day to day, with temperatures remaining above average.

An inverted trough, or perhaps a low center is expected to develop over the central Gulf coast over the weekend, with a frontal boundary extending east from it, across the local area. Continued onshore flow, coupled with frontal convergence will yield above average precipitation chances through the weekend, with temperatures running near to a little below average.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions with generally light and variable winds through the period. Light SW winds this morning become SSE this afternoon in the wake of the Atlantic sea breeze shifting inland.

MARINE

High pressure will shift over the region early this week with prevailing west to southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the afternoon nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High pressure will shift east of the waters midweek with southerly winds, turning easterly in the afternoon over the nearshore waters from seabreeze circulation. Increasing moisture will bring a return of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters by late in the week.

Rip Currents: Long period swells and elevated surf heights continue to subside down into the 2-3 ft range today and expect a solid Moderate Risk of Rip currents through Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Minrh Percentages In The 20S North Of I10 Today - Patchy High Daytime Dispersions Inland Thursday - Patchy Low Daytime Dispersions Saturday Through Monday

High pressure will be northeast of the region through Friday, leading to a prolonged period of onshore flow, and increasing chances for mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure may form near the central Gulf toward the weekend, stretching a frontal zone east across the local area. This boundary would enhance chances for convection over the weekend.

Fog Potential...Patchy fog Suwannee valley this morning, with patchy fog across inland areas Tonight.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Astronomical higher than normal tides will continue into this evening with Minor Flooding occurring during times of high tide within the St. Johns River Basin and along the NE FL Atlantic coast/ICWW. Water levels peak during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) through this evening and have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory through this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ125- 132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633. GA...None. MARINE...None.