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000 FXUS64 KJAN 292354 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 654 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the forecast area this weekend.
- There is an additional chance for thunderstorms during the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Quiet and dry conditions will persist across the region as high pressure remains dominant. Temperatures will continue to trend near 10 degrees higher than climatological normals. FireWx concerns will persist through this evening as drought conditions continue. Increasing moisture Friday should serve to mitigate the FireWx concerns; however, ongoing drought conditions will only be partially alleviated by upcoming rainfall this weekend. Continue to follow the guidance of local and state fire officials and adhere to any active burn bans./KP/
An upper shortwave will shift from the Southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley over the weekend. Increasing mid level moisture will result in increasing clouds by Friday, with virga likely beginning to overspread the area by Friday afternoon as this moisture encounters drier low levels. By early Saturday morning, showers will be possible mainly around the ArkLaMiss/ Delta area. Across the remainder of the area, scattered showers may mostly hold off until more into Saturday afternoon/evening, continuing into Sunday. Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday into Sunday, but no severe weather is expected. Given the scattered nature of precip, many outdoor plans may still proceed without disruption this weekend, but it would be a good idea to keep close watch on conditions and/or have a backup plan in case rain does occur at your location.
A break in rain chances is still expected Monday as shortwave ridging shifts across the area, then a deepening upper trough looks to bring a more organized storm system to the area for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. With this system, it appears more probable showers and thunderstorms would be organized along a cold front pushing eastward across the area. While instability with this system is uncertain, stronger deep layer shear appears likely, which could result in some strong storms. With this system still several days away, it is too early to have much confidence in timing/threat details. /DL/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Jackson | 56 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 30% |
| Meridian | 51 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 30% |
| Vicksburg | 55 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 40% |
| Hattiesburg | 55 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40% |
| Natchez | 57 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 40% |
| Greenville | 55 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 40% |
| Greenwood | 52 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 30% |
JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.
KP/DL/86