Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous levels of heat stress are expected during the late morning and afternoon hours early this week. Heat danger will begin to decrease later in the week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 839 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Rest of tonight...

Quiet evening is on tap for the evening. RAP/water vapor analysis indicate ridge of high pressure aloft over the southeast states, while surface high resides over the northern Gulf. Stationary front is situated off to the northeast of the region over western TN, northern AL and north-central GA. Some drier air is evident in GOES East total precipitable water (PWs falling to around 1.3 inches), with more progged to move in the east into Tuesday. This will keep the region dry and limited cloud cover overall. Lows will be seasonably warm, some 8-12F above (72-76F). Updates are already out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Through Tuesday: Through Monday: Storms have once again developed with strong daytime heating and are mainly focused over the western half of the area. A favorable environment for microbursts with vertical totals near 26 deg C and DCAPE near 1500 j/kg is supporting a few intense storms with strong wind gusts, and wouldn't rule out a marginally severe microburst or two. There are currently numerous outflow boundaries supporting greater storm coverage as well, and this storm threat should continue to the early evening hours. The storm threat for Tuesday should less quite a bit and be confined to far southern portions of the area. Otherwise, dangerous heat continues to be the primary concern, and the heat advisory was extended to Tuesday, although it was trimmed a bit from today's more expansive area. /EC/

Wednesday through next Monday: Continuing easterly flow will usher in a relatively drier airmass through the end of the work week. This airmass will still support hot days, with temps still approaching the triple digits in the ArkLaMiss Delta. But with dewpoints dropping into 60s and perhaps the 50s, heat stress will become less of a concern through the end of the week. It is still possible a heat advisory may be needed for some areas mainly west of I-55 on Wednesday, but heat related alerts are unlikely for the remainder of the week. While days will still be quite warm with above normal temps, mornings will see temps dipping into the 60s in many areas. Deep layer moisture will begin to increase again this weekend, with returning potential for diurnal convection each day. Though it will still be warm, high temps are expected to regress closer to seasonal normals around the beginning of next week. /DL/EC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

This is a low chance for brief patchy fog around daybreak. Then isolated to scattered SHRA/TS are possible mainly across south/west MS, northeast LA, and AR Tue afternoon, resulting in brief visby/ceiling reductions and gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with light wind. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>037-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.