Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for a few showers or sprinkles exists tonight into the weekend. Little, if any impacts expected for Saturday evening.

- Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s should dominate much of the period.

- Brief warm up mid week, with better chances for rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The spell of 70+ degree temps has ended for the time being, with the airmass behind yesterday's cold front shaving off about 10 degrees in high temps going into the weekend (low to mid 60s, maybe a few upper 60s by Monday). Drier low levels remain in place with dewpoints in the 40s and surrounding soundings shows fairly dry conditions below 850 mb. Hi-res models continue to show some spurious light showers/sprinkles for later this afternoon into Sat afternoon as an elevated warm front attempts to work north towards the region. 295-305K isentropic surfaces show decent lift and low CPDs, but then impacts of dry air below that leads to a lower confidence forecast on measurable precip. Northern areas will be on the edge of the RRQ of a 90 kt jet streak which may help give a little more kick to the lift. Model blend has backed off on timing of arrival overnight with differences in models on where and when some light shower activity could take shape with some indications of a diurnal uptick by the HRRR/RAP in the afternoon. Will continue with no more than chc pops into Saturday afternoon with best chances on Saturday. Hopefully, whatever is around will be gone by the time trick or treaters hit the streets.

Trough currently moving onshore in S California will move northeast in a weakened state, but will enough lift to bring another chance for showers Sunday afternoon, possibly lingering into Monday. Thereafter, the deeper trough that has been discussed at length for days will become the main challenge through much of the upcoming week with focus on mid week. Energy is still on the edge of the best upper air sampling, but hopefully better agreement starts over the weekend into early next week as it moves east. Best signals still point towards mid week being on the wetter side, but the main upper low may remain SW of the area. While severe weather threat may be low, still expected one or more rounds of precip. The active pattern will likely persist into next weekend, but low confidence exists given the plethora of differences in models.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 620 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Weak elevated warm advection/isentropic ascent may support a few sprinkles or very light showers tonight into Saturday at mainly KSBN. Dry and VFR otherwise given lingering dry conditions in the lowest 8-10 kft.

IWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None.