Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and humidity arrive on Monday along with a chance of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Brisk northwest flow aloft will accompany a couple of disturbances starting early Monday morning and continuing through Monday night. The highest instability is expected to the west of our area, however there may be a few isolated to scattered storms developing in association with the weak energy aloft. The best chance for these scattered storms will be early Monday morning across our western and southwestern counties, then again in the late evening Monday area wide. By late Monday night there will likely be a more significant well- organized cluster or line of storms originating over the Great Lakes moving southeast through the middle Ohio Valley. With some modest overnight instability and 40 knots of bulk shear, damaging winds will be the primary threat. Also can't rule out locally heavy rain with the most intense storms.

A cold front on Tuesday will end the storm threat and bring near normal to slightly below normal temperatures back into the area for the rest of the week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main impact tonight appears to be from fog development. Only minor changes made from the 18z TAF issuance for potential vsby reductions tonight. There is some uncertainty with our western terminals given that cloud debris from storms across central/western IN may disrupt fog development.

Some hi-res models do indicate the potential for a decaying complex of storms to dive southeast from Lake Michigan late Monday morning. As these storms move southeast, they will encounter a more stable air mass that will make storm maintenance difficult. Thus, the probability for these storms remains low enough to not warrant a mention in the TAFs yet, but will continue to monitor trends.

Otherwise, will observe morning BR lift into a low cloud deck, but not confident in this creating a BKN MVFR or lower reduction. Surface winds will maintain a southwesterly component on Monday, increasing to around 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.

ILN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.