Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak weather disturbance will bring a chance for some light rain to the region Sunday into Monday. A stronger system will result in more widespread precipitation for the middle part of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Surface high pressure will move off to the east tonight ahead of a weak mid level short wave that will move across the Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night. We will be starting off quite dry across the area, but an associated 20-30 knot low level jet ahead of this system will nose into southwest portions of our area heading into Sunday evening. This will allow for things to begin to moisten up somewhat later Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night. This will likely be enough for some scattered shower development, with the best chances across our southwest, in the vicinity of the better forcing associated with the low level jet. Suppose a few spotty showers could linger into Monday, but generally expect a lull in any pcpn then through Tuesday.

Models have come a bit more in line with the midweek system as the upper level trough axis over the central CONUS moves east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region through Wednesday. This will bring a developing chance for showers Tuesday night with fairly widespread precipitation continuing into the day on Wednesday. Will then linger some pcpn chances Thursday into Friday as some secondary mid level energy will try to move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Surface high pressure will shift off to the east today with a fair amount mid and high level cloudiness continuing to stream across the region. Outside of perhaps some patchy river valley fog through daybreak, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible on Monday and Wednesday. MVFR vsbys possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.