Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Consistent guidance regarding the upcoming week, so forecast changes were minor. Increased winds (mainly today) as the surge following the cold front expands southwestward. Coastal Flood Advisory issued for the lower Cape Fear River, including Downtown Wilmington through 3 PM. Surf zone headlines remain unchanged.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of a cold front and the arrival of a ridge of high pressure beginning late Monday night persisting through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of a cold front and the arrival of a ridge of high pressure beginning late Monday night persisting through Thursday.

Latest surface analysis shows the cold front progressing nicely through northeast SC early this morning. Dry air following the cold front has brought dew points in the 60s and mixing during peak heating today should bring us into the 50s away from the coast. Cooler temperatures and northeast winds will be a welcomed sight to an otherwise hot September to this point. However, high temperatures will only drop to near normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with gradual warming through the end of the week. Lows could drop into the upper 50s for our inland areas tonight; chances increase on Wednesday night. Dry for the upcoming work week with rain chances returning this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR CIGs at the coastal terminals will gradually dissipate prior to 08Z as drier air builds behind a cold front. VFR thereafter. Steady gradient will produce 10-15 knot NE winds today, gusting to 20 knots at times at the coast.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions should persist through Thursday in a drier and cooler airmass. May see an uptick in SHRA/TSRA by Friday and Saturday, but confidence is limited at this time with any potential restrictions.

MARINE

Northeasterly winds continue to build this morning behind a cold front. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through this evening with periodic gusts up to 25 knots and seas up to 6 feet. The fetch will persist into Thursday as the surface ridge axis resides across the Carolinas and a late- week surface trough keeps the gradient pinched. Winds and seas improve on Friday as the gradient weakens and winds turn easterly.

ILM WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254-256.