Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming temperatures this week with rain chances late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming temperatures this week with rain chances late week.

Persistent ridging over the East Coast will shift offshore early this week kicking off a warming trend. Temperatures are forecasted to be around 10 degrees above normal starting Tuesday and lasting through late week. A shortwave lifting across the Southeast will bring rain chances to the area Wednesday night into Friday, with increased PWATs aided by return flow. However, latest guidance has most of the forcing remaining to our west and north, and ensemble guidance only has 0.25-0.5" of QPF through the end of the week. Shifts in the location of the trough will change the rainfall forecast.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR with scattered to broken high clouds. Northeast winds 5-10 kts with gusts around 15 kts during the day.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR. The risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers increases on Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory, which has been expanded to include AMZ254, remains in effect into tonight for 6 ft seas in the outer nearshore coastal waters. There is a chance the SCA could be extended into Monday for the coastal waters off of Georgetown county (AMZ256) where 6 ft seas may linger a bit longer.

Persistent breezy northeast winds continue across the local waters through midweek before veering to easterlies as high pressure moves off the Northeast coast. Seas dominated by ENE swell through Monday before swell becomes easterly. Significant wave heights 4-6 ft through Monday for the 0-20nm waters drop to 3-5 ft for Tuesday through Thursday. For the 20-60nm waters, seas generally in the 5-7 ft range through midweek. Scattered thunderstorms possible over the waters Thursday.

ILM WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.