Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1031 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM through 8 PM on Tuesday for portions of the forecast area.

- Moderate (Level 2/4) NWS HeatRisk values are expected for the majority of the forecast period. However, Major (Level 3/4) values are expected across parts of northwest and north-central AL (as well as southern Middle TN) through Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Nighttime RGB satellite imagery shows clear skies over the area after clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurred across portions of northern MS earlier this afternoon. With relatively dry low level air, believe that any fog development would largely be confined to river valleys and not as widespread as we have seen in recent nights. Overnight lows will continue to be on the warmer side of seasonal norms in the lower 70s.

A bit of a rinse and repeat forecast for Tuesday as high pressure continues to build over the area and height rises reinforce hot conditions for the TN Valley. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 90s in higher terrain areas to near 100 degrees over NW AL and urban areas. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM through 8 PM Tuesday to highlight the increased risk for heat related illness, especially for those vulnerable to the heat and for those spending time outdoors without proper cooling and hydration. Southeast to easterly winds will keep drier conditions flowing into the area, and rain chances tomorrow afternoon are less than 10%.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

We will maintain a hot and dry forecast through Thursday as the synoptic pattern changes little while high pressure continues to build over much of the eastern CONUS. Abundant sunshine will allow for temps to reach into the mid to upper 90s each afternoon and while this heat wave is relatively dry compared to recent ones, there will still be enough humidity present to bring heat indices up to the 100-105 degree range during the afternoon. This will keep us in the moderate to major HeatRisk category through the short term period. Please do not let your guard down yet as dangerous heat remains our primary threat this week. If spending time outdoors please drink plenty of fluids, wear light breathable clothing, and take frequent breaks in the shade. Remember to never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles!

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Late this week the anchored ridge across the Southeast will continue to retrograde and weaken as a cut off low moves westward across Florida. What remains of the ridge will keep around warmer than normal temps in place with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values around 100 degrees Friday and Saturday.

This weekend, the low will continue to slide westward. However, models are now not as certain on what the path and trajectory of the low will be as it is suggesting it slows down the westward progression on Sunday and stalls it out to our south through Monday. This pattern leads to a greater assumption that the front well to our north that drapes over into the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic will not make it through the TN Valley. The persistent sfc high along the east coast will cause it to become more of a wedge front for us on Sunday into Monday. Temps and POPs on Sunday and Monday will depend a lot on the pattern than ends up taking shape. However, there should be a downward temp trend with models favoring highs "only" in the 80s on Monday as medium rain chances (40-60%) move in.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period, with light winds and a mostly clear sky.

HUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>007.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096.