Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 426 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Light-moderate showers will develop across NW Alabama late this afternoon, with a widespread coverage anticipated tonight through early Sunday afternoon. A few embedded thunderstorms may also occur (particularly across the southwestern portion of the forecast area).

- East-southeasterly gradient winds will strengthen to 15-20 MPH on today (with gusts of 25-30 MPH), and these conditions will continue through Sunday.

- Medium to high chances (40-70%) for showers and a few thunderstorms will return during the middle part of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 426 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A stationary front was positioned from NW Alabama, to south of Huntsville, to across Atlanta metro. As high pressure to our north that pushed the front across the area late Friday heads toward the Mid Atlantic shore, this boundary should become more diffuse. While this occurs, a weak system that is producing showers from the SE Great Plains to coastal TX/LA will move eastward, and bring lower end chances of showers across portions of NW Alabama late this afternoon. An increase in winds aloft and marginal instability from the heating could bring a few rumbles of thunder the blends have picked up. Have left it in the forecast but with limited coverage.

Before showers are realized, expect another mild to warm late October day. But with more and thicker cloud cover gradually moving in, not quite as warm. High temperatures later on should still rise into the mid 70s. Normal highs this time of year are around 70 for reference.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

By Saturday evening, most guidance does show strong 700 mb forcing and stronger upper level forcing pushing into northwestern Alabama (associated with a shortwave aloft). This will likely allow for light to precipitation to continue. However, fairly dry air will be near the surface, so this may keep precipitation very light. 925 mb winds increase to between 30 and 40 knots Saturday evening. This should keep breezy conditions in the forecast (sustained winds 10 to 20 mph with some gusts to around 30 mph). This period may need to be monitored for a possible wind advisory, but mixing looks a bit low for one right now. Low level moisture advection at 925 mb really picks up in most guidance towards daybreak in NW Alabama into the morning hours on Sunday. Expect that period to have the most persistent and possibly moderate rainfall chances at times for our area. Models are showing very minimal elevated CAPE, so cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two.

Models have trended towards two main areas of stronger lift later in the day on Sunday into Sunday evening - 1) shifting from NE MS/NW AL into Tennessee and Kentucky and 2) one that extended from southern Alabama into the eastern Gulf of America.

Either of these solutions would keep the more persistent moderate to heavy rainfall mainly to our south and north. Though a few models continue to shift some of the stronger forcing across northern Alabama. Confidence in appreciable rainfall (more than one half of an inch) therefore is low Saturday night through Sunday night. Models continue to forecast very cool temperatures on Sunday, only reaching the upper 50s to around 65 degrees. It will remain cloudy, but higher chances of rain given the forcing splitting us to the north or south gives pause to temperatures being that low.

Just about all guidance pushes the longwave trough axis into NE Alabama or NW Georgia late Sunday night. This should really lower rainfall chances significantly into the low chance realm (20-30%) Cloudy conditions will likely hang around though. This should keep overnight lows fairly warm in the lower to mid 50s again.

Upper level ridging builds back into the region early next week. Thus, highs should climb back into the lower 70s at least (likely a bit higher based on the pattern) by Monday. At the same time, a strong upper low and amplified longwave trough axis develops over the Rockies and Midwestern states. This really amplifies the upper ridge over the southeast through Tuesday. This should present a noticeable warmup again over the area.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

As the longwave trough axis and associated cold front moves east towards the Mississippi Valley area Monday night into Tuesday, the upper ridge should continue to amplify. In fact, upper level pressure patterns in models are suggestive of a weak rex block type of pattern setting up over the Midwest. This could end up slowing this cold front down more in future guidance if this pattern more fully develops.

Strong southerly flow and a very amplified upper ridge should allow for highs to climb back into the mid 70s (possibly mid to upper 70s again). This strengthening southerly flow should help to bring more moisture northward from the Gulf of America towards midweek. Very strong mid/low level forcing is shown in guidance ahead of this storm system.

Currently, most guidance develops widespread and much heavier rainfall over northern Alabama late Tuesday night into Wednesday night ahead of this stronger cold front. 0-6 km Bulk Shear is not extreme, but does climb to between 40 and 60 knots as the front approaches. In addition, portions of northern Alabama might realize very meager surface based instability, so we may be looking a QLCS type event shaping up sometime during that window. However, more certainty looks to be in a very heavy rainfall threat (maybe 2-4 inches mainly Wednesday into Wednesday night) given the strong/deep forcing guidance is showing over the area and high PWATS values. Expect this heavy rainfall threat to taper off early Thursday morning. Wednesday looks to be a real washout, so highs will likely be kept in the upper 60s/lower 70s (which might be generous).

Expect dry conditions to return to the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Though it will be cooler behind this front, the airmass is not very cold. Highs will remain cool though and drop into the mid to upper 60s on Friday with some lingering cloud cover. Lows should slow drop into the 40 to lower 50s at night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VFR conditions prevailed across most of the area, while broken to overcast high altitude clouds move in from the west. Winds aloft have subsided below Wind Shear criteria over KHSV. Stronger winds aloft this evening will bring a Wind Shear risk, so maintained it for KHSV and added it to KMSL. Showers associated with the system could impact KMSL in the late afternoon and this evening at KHSV. Better chances for showers are expected tonight. Went with MVFR CIG/VSBY reductions as a start, but could see them lower should showers become more widespread and/or heavier. Light winds this morning will become ESE 10-15 kt with some gusts to 20kt this afternoon. ESE winds of 5-15 kt are forecast tonight.

HUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.